The first Classic of
the season, the 2,000 Guineas, is not renowned for throwing up
long-priced winners, but Makfi (33/1) and Cockney Rebel (25/1) have
been successful since 2004. All but five of the entries for this
year’s renewal, due off at 3.50 p.m. on Saturday, May 3, are
available at odds of 16/1 or longer in the ante post lists, so an
upset is not totally out of the question.
The first of those at
longer odds to take the eye is Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner,
Outstrip, who is available at 28/1, in a place, in the ante post
lists. The Exceed And Excel colt has 2¾ lengths to find with War
Command on their running in the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket last
October and a neck to find with Toormore on their running in the
Veuve Clicquot Vintage Stakes at Goodwood earlier last season, but
both those races were over 7 furlongs.
Despite being sired by
a sprinter, the Rowley Mile promises to bring out the best in him
and, considering that both Toormore and War Command are available at
single-figure prices, he looks massively overpriced. Indeed, The Grey
Gatsby, whom he beat by 3 lengths in the Champagne Stakes at
Doncaster last September, finished second, beaten just 2 lengths,
behind Toormore in the Craven Stakes over course and distance on his
reappearance at Newmarket.
Lester Piggott’s
son-in-law, William Haggas, has never won the 2,000 Guineas, but has
trained 12 3-year-old winners from 32 runners already this season and
probably knows that 3-year-old form as well as anyone. Bearing that
in mind, it’s perhaps a little surprising that his Oasis Dream colt
Ertijaal can be backed at 40/1 in places.
Admittedly, he would be
an unusual 2,000 Guineas winner insofar that he has yet to win a
Group race of any kind and he has only been workmanlike in winning
both starts over 7 furlongs on the Polytrack at Lingfield so far this
season. He is currently officially rated 17lb inferior to Toormore,
despite having been beaten just a neck by Richard Hannon’s charge
in a maiden, over 6 furlongs, at Leicester on his debut last May, so
probably needs to improve. However, that’s by no means out of the
question after just four career starts and he’s another for whom a
realistic case can be made at generous odds.
It’s been 23 years
since Mystiko completed the European Free Handicap – 2,000 Guineas
double, so the statistics don’t favour Shifting Power, who won the
former race in a bunch finish on the Rowley Mile. He also appears to
be Richard Hannon’s third string, if the ante post market is to be
believed, but the one bookmaker offering 50/1 about an unbeaten,
well-bred colt may be taking a chance.
Of course, any one of
the front five in the market could win and the chances are that one
of them will, but that’s not what this column is all about. Our
three against the field, in order of preference, are:
Outstrip (28/1 with
William Hill)
Ertijaal (40/1 with 888
Sport)
Shifting Power (50/1
with Bet Bright)
Win or lose, enjoy the
race and good luck!
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