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Friday, 9 October 2015

3:50 Newmarket, Saturday, October 10

We could hardly say that a 34-runner handicap, over 2 miles 2 furlongs, is an answer to our prayers, but the Cesarewitch Handicap does, at least, provide us with another opportunity for some wild speculation at fancy prices. Two favourites may have won the race in the last ten years, but they were accompanied by winners at 66/1 (twice), 50/1, 25/1, 16/1, 14/1 and 10/1 (twice), so we have no qualms about dabbling in the ‘wrong’ end of the market.

A little surprisingly, Sir Mark Prescott has yet to win a Cesarewitch, but attempts to set the record straight by saddling four runners this year. However, stable jockey Luke Morris has plumped for Moscato (25/1) and we see no reason to argue with him. The Hernando gelding has 7¼ lengths to find with Low Key on their running in the Cesarewitch Trial over course and distance three weeks ago, but is 4lb better off with that rival this time and should improve for that run, his first since May.

Wordiness (40/1) is 3-3 under Silvestre De Sousa, who once again takes the ride, so it would be folly to leave David Evans’ 7-year-old out of calculations. All four of his career wins on turf have come with “firm” in the going description, so connections will be doing a sun dance between now and Saturday afternoon, but the weather at Headquarters is set fair for the rest of the week, so his chance may improve day by day.

Bernard Llewellyn could surely have found Norab (50/1) an easier assignment on his first run for the yard (and his first since May), so the fact that he’s throwing the Galileo gelding in at the deep end may be a hint worth taking. Regular readers will remember that Jospeh Tuite pulled off a similar feat with 33/1 chance Litigant in the Betfred Ebor at York in August so, despite disappointing on his last two starts for Marco Botti, he’s another that you write off at your peril, especially with drying ground in his favour.

It’s probably possible to make a convincing case for at least 25 of the 34 runners but, for richer for poorer, our three against the field are, in no particular order, Moscato (25/1), Wordiness (40/1) and Norab (50/1). Good luck!

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