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Tuesday, 1 August 2017

Goodwood 4.45, Wednesday, August 2

Sagely has recorded both wins under Silvestre De Sousa, as well as finishing second, off a 1lb higher mark, in this race last year. The Brazilian was once again in the saddle when Ed Dunlop’s filly finished third, beaten a neck and three-quarters of a length, at Salisbury last month and the partnership appears to have every chance of going one better than last year. The form of her previous third at Chelmsford has been franked by the winner, Ickymasho, and the runner-up, Banditry, who both reoppose, and she went down fighting against the unexposed Standing Rock at Salisbury. She’s 4lb better off for three-quarters of a length with Billesdon Bess, with finished second in the latter race and, while she steps back up in class, she still appears feasibly weighted for a return to the winners’ enclosure.

Obviously there are plenty with chances, as is the case with all the handicaps this week but, at a double-figure price, Sagely looks good value to take Silvestre De Sousa one closer to a second jockeys’ title.

Goodwood 4.45 Sagely to win (16/1 with Ladbrokes)

Saturday, 15 July 2017

Who wants to be a millionaire?


Who wants to be a millionaire?  Miss McCann does. The Belfast student is suing Bet365 on account that they are refusing to pay out an eye watering £1,009,960 winning wager made on her account last year. To be precise, the bet was in fact a series of 960 £13 each way 'Lucky 15' bets placed on twelve horses in four races (Bath 6.10, Kempton 7.20, Naas, Ireland 7.00 and 8.30) on June 22nd 2016.

Placing the bets cost a pretty penny too, close to £25,000, a sum which Bet365 is currently withholding too. Despite what appear to be early assurances to Miss McCann that she would be receiving payment, her account was suspended and later closed with Bet365 claiming that McCann breached their ‘no third party’ rule, which states that the entire stake must be put up by the customer alone.

Reading between the lines it would appear that Miss McCann may have placed the bet on behalf of other individuals or a syndicate. Not enough information is out there right now to comment further, though it will perhaps surprise and concern some of those involved in betting syndicates (or placing bets online for others) to realise that this type of situation can come about. It will be interesting to see the eventual outcome of the dispute.

Sunday, 18 June 2017

Bullington Bandit

Bulinton Badnit was 200-1 on Betfair, with some taken at several hundred to one in-running in the 1.30 Newbury race (15th June). A good day for some (and a very bad one for others!)

Tuesday, 13 June 2017

2:10 Yarmouth (Wednesday 14th June)

Wait One Minute, Sovereign State Gets My Vote

An EBF Novice Stakes (Plus 10) over 5f 42y on good to firm going. Just five runners: two with race experience and a trio of debutantes. 

One Minute will be the answer to the question for many punters here. To be honest, you can't knock this strapping filly trained by William Haggas.  This bay is a daughter of Kodiac and a cracking 2yo purchase at the breeze-up sales for £52,000. She made her debut in May racing over the minimum trip. It looked a tall order taking on a field of mostly colts, especially To Wafij, trained by Roger Varian, who had won well over course and distance. He had to shoulder a winner's penalty but One Minute disposed of him like a black widow spider looking for a Big Mac before a date. 

This January foal ran out an easy win by more than three lengths. 

The form of that race has been franked on a number of occasions. It is probably the case that To Wafij and Demons Rock went a stride too fast that day, while Elysium Dream needed an extra furlong which proved the point when needing every yard to win her next start. One Minute has to carry a penalty, which is a fair test even for a talent. At odds of 4/9f she will most likely be a banker for most punters who like to dig deep. 

That's all good and well. However, even the best horses get beaten often when you least expect.

There may be a couple of outsiders worthy of respect. 

Philip McBride is a canny trainer. He is particularly good with his fillies and those running on their second start. Onefootinparadise is a bay daughter of Footstepsinthesand and a cheap purchase at just 2,000G. That price tag alone will put most punters off betting. There is no doubt she needs to improve on that debut. The form is no more than average but she suffered a terribly slow start and ran on with spirit. McBride gives the honours to an apprentice to take a valuable 5lb off her back. The betting is a key factor. We are looking at a big price chance but I wouldn't bet if this filly is priced over 20/1. However, if priced about 14/1 & less SP she could be worthy of a small each-way bet. 

Sovereign State is interesting. This bay colt needs to be primed to win on debut. However, I can be pretty confident this son of Compton Place has ability. Racing in the ownership of Qatar Racing Ltd, he looks a great breeze-up purchase at just £30,000. Readers may have noticed that Robert Cowell sent out an exciting filly to win the Hilary Needler Stakes at Beverley on debut. The Brian Yeardley Stakes for colts had a very interesting entry who didn't run. It was Sovereign State. That entry is a very good indicator that Cowell rates this colt and I suspect he will run a big race here. 

Viscount Loftus and May Girl are best watched.

Conclusion: One Minute looks a filly going places and if winning here you can bet connections will be viewing Royal Ascot with interest. True, she will take some beating but whether you want to jump in at 4/9f carrying a penalty is another matter. If this was a donkey derby I would be thinking she is half way to a certainty myself but I would be fearful of Sovereign State. He is likely to have ability and we know from Cowell's past exploits that he can train a talent to win on debut. I would be fearful of this colt. Onefootinparadise looks a poor relation to these with regard purchase price but McBride is no fool. The betting will tell the story and if a huge price I would say look to the two favourites. However, if she is 14/1 & less SP she may be a little tougher than you think. If you are convinced the fvourite will win with ease, I'd have a small cover bet on Sovereign State just to help you sleep at night!

Friday, 9 June 2017

Boris Johnson for Prime Minister?

Boris Johnson for Prime Minister? Personally, it's not a thought that fills me with boundless joy, but really I'm just bleary eyed, election watching, and casting my mind back to an outsider that one punter bet on late last month. A week or so back, people were laughing themselves silly at a £2000 bet one Labrokes punter made on Boris Johnson to be prime minister after the 2017 election (by July 1st). It led to much head scratching and the odd comment that this guy must be a nut!

As it turns out though, it seems like the punter was thinking along the right lines. At time of writing, the 2017 general election seat tally is Con: 303 Lab: 256 Lid Dem: 12 SNP: 34  Other 21 . This is a significant under performance for Theresa May and has the potential to create more problems than it solves. As such, itm ay well be that the party decides that she now has to go. With that in mind the former London mayor is currently rapidly shortening in price to be the next leader.

So I hear you ask, what were the betting odds for Boris becoming prime minister following the election, when this brave follow bet a cool two grand on it. Wait for it........... 100 - 1 . Possibly he'll now try to lay off some of the bet to make sure he gets a clunk of well deserve cash based on his foresight. It was a shrewd bet considering that a hung parliament wasn't 'entirely' out of the question, and the fact that Boris Johnson was widely expected to run for the Tory leadership last year following David Cameron stepping down. This political betting certainly lark seems to work out okay for some, and I'm glad someone is benefiting from our current crazy political lurches this was and that. Uncertain times ahead.

Sunday, 21 May 2017

6:25 Windsor (22nd May)

British Stallions EBF FILLIES' Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race)

A Fillies' Novice Stakes over 6f 12y on good to soft ground. Decent price money on offer sees eight two-year-olds take part.

Charlie Appleby has been the king of debut winners this season such is the force of Godolphin. Dathanna is made favourite (15/8) in the tissue prices but it will be interesting to see if she is opposed to what could be a respectable form horse. 

Dathanna is a daughter of Dubawi is likely to have the ability but needs to bit ready against more experienced rivals. 

Cardaw Lily hails from Richard Hughes who I have been quite critical of as a trainer. He often fails miserably with fancied horses although this daughter of Lawman ran well on debut at Ascot a race that is likely to yield many winners. Certainly the first three look capable of a higher class.This £35,000 yearling purchase was sent off 33-1. She was slow away but ran on well in the closing stages without being hard pressed. With that experience under her belt, you have to feel a big race.

Angel Of The South was behind. Dean Ivory's daughter of Dark Angel was fancied to go well on debut at this course and finished second to Rock Of Estonia. Considering she cost £170,000 at the yearling sales it is fair to imagine connections expected a bold show at Ascot. She didn't run well at all. However, it was a competitive race so you have to be careful because it may have been her running. She led that day with Mrs Gallagher and thought she went a stride too fast for her ability. The betting kind of suggests the bookmakers think the same. It will be interesting to see how both Cardaw Law and Angel Of The South go over this extra furlong. I would prefer the former but it will be intriguing.

Richard Hannon's Elysium Dream is another filly who ran in a hot maiden on debut won impressively by One Minute. This daughter of Champs Elysees looked clueless that day when 20/1. The leaders set a frantic pace but even so she was toiling behind like she had no hope of even being competitive. However, she plugged on and was chasing down the second and third with some aggression in the closing furlong. There is little doubt the placed horses had run out of energy so you have to be slightly cautious and wonder if Elysium Dream was flattered. This extra yardage will help but she wouldn't want to be slow into stride on this dog leg. 

Andrew Balding does well at this course so Angel Islington may go ok. Priced at 11/1 currently, it's certainly worth a look.

Similarly, Clive Cox can go win with debutantes. Windsor used to be a significant course for this trainer in the good old days so it is interesting to see Little Miss Lilly (also 11/1). 

Conclusion: Dathanna will have her supporters. Debutantes for this stable have done nothing wrong this season so that is a positive and six furlongs is easier for making ground if a touch slow into stride. I would take a watching brief. Cardaw Lily should go well and appreciate this extra furlong. She will improve from a nice introduction at Ascot. On that form, she should beat Angel Of The South but it is a matter of debate whether she ran her race that day. It was a strange run and I wouldn't give up hope on Ivory's horse just yet. However, I would need a double-figure price to take an interest. Not sure what to think about Elysium Dream. She could be a class act but needs to be much livelier this time round. The extra furlong should be a huge positive and that experience could have blown the cobwebs away. Angel Islington and Little Miss Lilly have claims and would be my picks here!

 As seen on bettingTips4you.com . They have a good track record and offer great profit opportunities. They certainly do their homework and identify the value on outsider bets. This is true on multiple sports and especially horse racing

Monday, 1 May 2017

The Quest For a Big Win

A cousin of mine takes part in a monthly horse racing tips competition alongside a few others run by my brother. It's just a bit of fun, is free and has a small cash prize each month so keeps people interested. This Saturday he somehow managed to get a 40-1 shot up (Henllan Harri at Sandown in the 3:35 Gold Cup Handicap Chase), and that was just the odds with the bookies, so it was possibly 100-1 + with Betfair. It's not every day of the week you get a winner at those odds, and of course I'm sure he's kicking himself for not having a bet on it.

Even though I'm definitely one to look for a big priced outsider win (hadn't you guessed from the URL of the blog!), I do often find myself more likely to pick out a few selections at around the 20-1 mark or thereabouts because you do need at least the semi occasional win to keep the momentum going motivation wise. For either myself, or those who keep up to speed with my bets, if I was always fixating on the 'rare as hen's teeth' odds range, I'd likely have an awful lot of lean spells.

That said, sometimes there are horses that, huge priced as they are, you can't help but at least think they have half a hope (and of course taking 'price to chance' into account, that's all you need at crazy odds). Those are the wins you remember, the real stand outs over the span of your betting life.

Of course many big wins in racing, aren't single bet outsiders as such, but instead accumulator bets with huge combined odds with at best an outside chance of winning. Not to say that they don't happen though. Case in point on Friday afternoon (28th April) one lucky Coral punter received the biggest payout in their history with his five horse accumulator, placing a paltry £19 on five Punchestown, Ireland bets and walking away with a mind boggling £823,000 - a fact he didn't even recieve until checking his account on the early hours of Saturday after a night out. A night to remember! The Vegas slots 'casino level win' of bets, something to muse over while you're playing high RTP Slots.

One of his selections (Canardier) was an outsider in its own right at 33-1, so was a brave selection to even include in an accumulator to be honest. His other selections were 10/1 Das Mooser (3.40 Punchestown), 9/2 Woodland Opera (4.20 Punchestown), 7/1 Definite Ruby (4.55 Punchestown), 10/1 Bacardys (6.05 Punchestown) and the bet consisted of 5 £3 4 fourfold accumulators and one £4 fivefold.

What's the biggest priced horse that's romped home for you (or biggest combined odds of your biggest winning acca)?

Friday, 21 April 2017

6:00 Nottingham (22nd April) - Novice Stakes

A Novice Stakes for two-year-olds over 5f 13y on good to firm going. Eight juveniles take part all debutantes bar one horse with race experience. 

Poignant is a son of Sepoy and trained by Archie Watson who has been a power of strength since starting his training career. This chestnut colt is a homebred for present owner Al Asayl Bloodstock Ltd. He made his debut just over two weeks ago when making his debut at Leicester finishing seventh behind easy winner Kick On Kick On trained by Clive Cox. It was a fair effort if nothing out of the ordinary. The starting odds of 16-1 suggested that he may have been in need of run and better could be expected on these next few starts. 

John Gallagher doesn't have many two-year-olds in training and very few winning on debut.To be fair, he does have a few debutantes that go close and if memory serves one prevailed last year at Goodwood. Green Power is likely to be a big price here. This March foal is a son of Kheleyf and £7,000 yearling purchase by the trainer. Best watched. 

The last few years have seen the fortunes of Mich Channon's stable suffer. From a powerhouse training talented two-year-olds his string is now a shadow of what used to be and consequently, the victories are harder to find. Neola is one of two fillies in the field. This daughter of Foxwedge. The dam, Effie B, used to be trained by Channon and a fair juvenile winning over £40,000 in total prize money. The betting is the best guide to this fillies' chances. If priced bigger than 8-1 I would definitely take a watching brief. If priced in the best betting guide has some chance although the stable are struggling to hit the headlines.

Another small trainer is John Holt. Mocead Cappall. This daughter of Captain Gerrard is out of a dam readers may recall All Fur Coat.She finished second on debut but managed one victory. Mocead Cappall was purchased by the trainer at the yearling sales for £9,500. Will be a big price but a surprise if good enough today. 

One trainer and owner combination that ticks a lot of boxes is John Fretwell and David Brown. Both talents when it comes to spotting talented two-year-olds they have done well with some very precocious types over the years. Snaffled is a bay colt, sired by Camacho , purchased by Fretwell for 57,000G at the yearling sales. One of the more fancied runner from a stable who can ready a debutante. Definitely, on the shortlist especially if priced 13/2 & less SP. 

Richard Fahey has been in flying form this season with his juveniles and one of few trainers who can get them fitter than a butcher's dog. A number of winners have been seen on debut and Simmy's Copshop is likely to start favourite. This chestnut son of Bahamian Bounty is in the ownership of Middleham Park Racing. He cost 45,000E at the yearling sales. A trainer who knows how to win and his juveniles have been in form. 

Karl Burk has been a bit hit and miss with his juveniles this season although we sent out a huge 66-1 winning two-year-old at Ripon on Thursday. Havana Grey will be more fancied and could well be a big player. This son of Havana Gold cost 70,000E at the yearling sales, the price increasing markedly from a foal. Should fit the frame. 

The first two-year-old runner of the season fro Michael Bell. Interesting to see him with an early juvenile as it is often an indicator they fancy them to have a level of ability. Choice Encounter is a son of Choisir and bought in by the vendor for 65,000. Louis Steward takes off a valuable 3lb. Another horse who should be in the first three. 

Conclusion: We endevour to bring you the best horse racing tips. In general, we're all about big priced outsiders but I don't get a feeling a big priced winner will shine here. Quite interested in Choice Encounter who looks a decent each-way bet at odds of 11-2. 
 

Thursday, 13 April 2017

2000 Guineas Outsider Tip

The first colts’ classic of the season, the Qipco 2,000 Guineas Stakes, is still a few weeks away, but Aidan O’Brien’s Galileo colt Churchill is already past the post, if the ante post market is to be believed. The European champion two-year-old stayed on well to win the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes, over 7 furlongs, at Newmarket last October by 1¼ lengths, despite being denied a clear run, and seems sure to be a tough nut to crack once again.

However, 6/4 favourites are not what we’re about and we much prefer to take a chance on Kevin Ryan’s unbeaten colt Syphax, who can be backed at a standout 50/1 with Stan James. By Arch out of a Kingmambo mare, Syphax is bred to stay a mile, or further, and stepped up significantly on his winning debut, in a lowly Musselburgh maiden, when edging out Best Of Days in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes, over 7 furlongs, at York last August. The runner-up did the form no harm when winning the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes over the Rowley Mile at Newmarket on his only subsequent start and, having displayed signs of inexperience on both starts, Syphax remains open to significant improvement, especially over a mile. Win or lose, 50/1 is a silly price.

Selection: 3.35 Newmarket, Saturday, May 6 - Syphax each-way (50/1 with Stan James)

Sunday, 2 April 2017

Grand National Outsiders

Free Horse Racing Tips, Click Here!
The world’s greatest steeplechase, the Grand National, is only a few days away and, with the leading bookmakers offering ‘non-runner no bet’, we can afford to dabble at long odds in the ante post market. Who knows, we might just uncover some value. The Grand National has a safety limit of 40, so we’ve concentrated on a few that have realistic chances of getting into the race.

One For Arthur (16/1) has yet to win beyond 3 miles 5 furlongs, but has winning form on soft and heavy going and appears to be improving, so must have every chance if lasting home over and extra 5½ furlongs. Lucinda Russell’s 8-year-old made a promising reappearance when fifth of 22, beaten 3 lengths, behind Vieux Lion Rouge in the Becher Chase, over 3 miles 2 furlongs, on the Grand National Course in December. The way he finished that day suggested that he can reverse the form with the winner over this extra distance, despite being 4lb worse off at today’s weights. The Milan gelding confirmed that promise when winning the Classic Chase, over 3 miles 5 furlongs, at Warwick in January and, although 11lb higher in the weights, should remain competitive.

Double Shuffle (50/1), owned by the aptly-named Crossed Fingers Partnership, also has a question mark against him with regard to stamina, having done all his winning at 3 miles or shorter. However, he comes into the race in good form, having just been touched off in the Betbright Chase at Kempton six weeks ago. That performance – and his previous win at Kempton in December – came on good going, but he’s won on soft and looks reasonably handicapped if lasting home.

Wonderful Charm (66/1) has been running well in hunter chases this season, winning twice and going down by an ever-diminishing neck to Pacha Du Polder in the St. James’s Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup at the Cheltenham Festival last month. Paul Nicholls 9-year-old was pulled up in this race last year, but is 5lb lower in the weights this time around and, with his confidence boosted, could fare much better this time. Again, he has his stamina to prove, but that’s reflected in his price and he has winning form on the prevailing soft ground.

Selections: One For Arthur (16/1 with Betfair Sportsbook), Double Shuffle (50/1 with Bet Stars), Wonderful Charm (66/1 with Sportingbet)

Grand National, Aintree, Saturday, April 8

Free Horse Racing Tips, Click Here!
The world’s greatest steeplechase, the Grand National, is only a few days away and, with the leading bookmakers offering ‘non-runner no bet’, we can afford to dabble at long odds in the ante post market. Who knows, we might just uncover some value. The Grand National has a safety limit of 40, so we’ve concentrated on a few that have realistic chances of getting into the race.

One For Arthur (16/1) has yet to win beyond 3 miles 5 furlongs, but has winning form on soft and heavy going and appears to be improving, so must have every chance if lasting home over and extra 5½ furlongs. Lucinda Russell’s 8-year-old made a promising reappearance when fifth of 22, beaten 3 lengths, behind Vieux Lion Rouge in the Becher Chase, over 3 miles 2 furlongs, on the Grand National Course in December. The way he finished that day suggested that he can reverse the form with the winner over this extra distance, despite being 4lb worse off at today’s weights. The Milan gelding confirmed that promise when winning the Classic Chase, over 3 miles 5 furlongs, at Warwick in January and, although 11lb higher in the weights, should remain competitive.

Double Shuffle (50/1), owned by the aptly-named Crossed Fingers Partnership, also has a question mark against him with regard to stamina, having done all his winning at 3 miles or shorter. However, he comes into the race in good form, having just been touched off in the Betbright Chase at Kempton six weeks ago. That performance – and his previous win at Kempton in December – came on good going, but he’s won on soft and looks reasonably handicapped if lasting home.

Wonderful Charm (66/1) has been running well in hunter chases this season, winning twice and going down by an ever-diminishing neck to Pacha Du Polder in the St. James’s Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup at the Cheltenham Festival last month. Paul Nicholls 9-year-old was pulled up in this race last year, but is 5lb lower in the weights this time around and, with his confidence boosted, could fare much better this time. Again, he has his stamina to prove, but that’s reflected in his price and he has winning form on the prevailing soft ground.

Selections: One For Arthur (16/1 with Betfair Sportsbook), Double Shuffle (50/1 with Bet Stars), Wonderful Charm (66/1 with Sportingbet)

Monday, 27 March 2017

Grand National, Saturday, April 8

Definitly Red thrust himself firmly into the Grand National picture when staying on well to win the Betbright Grimthorpe Handicap Chase, over 3 miles 2 furlongs, at Doncaster earlier this month by 14 lengths from The Last Samurai and looks worthy of support at 14/1 in the ante post market. Brian Ellison’s 8-year-old travelled and jumped well at Doncaster and, while he lacks experience of the National fences, he’ll apparently be schooled over Aintree-type fences ahead of his National bid.

The Definite Article gelding had previously been hampered and unseated rider in the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase, over 3 miles, at Haydock, but would have finished second to Bristol De Mai. The winner was far from disgraced in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, so even that form looks much stronger than it did at the time. Like many of his rivals, Definitly Red has his stamina to prove over 4 miles 2½ furlongs, but is a progressive young horse with an excellent strike rate over fences and appeals as one of the more likely winners.

Selection: Aintree 5.15 Definitly Red to win (14/1 generally available)

Wednesday, 22 March 2017

Dubai World Cup, Saturday, March 26

Triple Grade 1 winner Arrogate is officially rated 16lb superior to his nearest rivals in the Dubai World Cup (4.45) at Meydan on Saturday and correspondingly long odds on (4/11) to extend his winning sequence. However, as demonstrated by the defeat of 2/9 favourite Douvan in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the recent Cheltenham Festival, horses are not machines, so there may be some value in opposing Bob Baffert’s 4-year-old.

The son of Unbridled’s Song has yet to race outside North America and, although Baffert apparently has no qualms about the Meydan surface and is happy with the condition of his charge, there can be no guarantees that the long journey from California hasn’t taken its toll.

Move Up (66/1) made decent progress on turf last season, progressing from handicaps to win twice in Group company over 1 mile 4 furlongs. The Dubawi colt ran well on his first attempt on dirt, and in Grade 1 company, when fourth of 8, beaten 3¼ lengths, behind Long River in the Al Maktoum Challenge R3 over course and distance three weeks ago. Saeed bin Suroor’s 4-year-old is entitled to improve for that run, his first since October, and may be capable of reversing the form with the winner and the second, Special Fighter, despite reopposing on identical terms.

In fact, Arrogate aside, Move Up has very little to find with anything else in the field, so the 25/1 available with Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook without the favourite looks cracking value.

Selection: Move Up w/o Arrogate (25/1 with Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook)

Sunday, 12 March 2017

2.10 Cheltenham, Friday, March 17

The County Hurdle, run over 2 miles 1 furlong on the New Course at Cheltenham, is usually subject to gambles a-plenty and this year’s renewal is unlikely to be any different. However, no favourite has won in the last 10 years and, with winners at 50/1, 25/1 and 20/1 three times in that period, the race is perfect for us, especially with ‘non-runner, no bet’ in operation with many leading bookmakers.

Vosne Romanee (33/1) earned himself a 13lb rise in the weights when winning at Perth in May, but showed improved form, leading on the bit at the last flight and drawing clear on the run-in to beat subsequent winner Curious Carlos by 6 lengths. The performance came on good to firm going, but Dr. Richard Newland’s 6-year-old has run well enough on good, good to soft and soft going to suggest he won’t be inconvenienced by slower underfoot conditions. The Arkan gelding takes a significant rise in class, but demonstrated his well-being by winning on the all-weather at Wolverhampton four weeks ago and is due to be ridden by Aidan Coleman, who’s 5-14 (36%) on the yard’s hurdlers in recent seasons.

Red Tornado (33/1) kept on strongly to win on his first attempt at Listed level at Market Rasen in May, but was well beaten, off an 8lb higher mark, over the same course and distance in September. He hasn’t run over hurdles since, but had a recent pipe-opener on the all-weather at Wolverhampton, has winning form on good to soft and soft going and has been dropped 2lb in the weights. It’s far too soon to be writing him off and he’s another who could go well at generous odds.

Selections: Vosne Romanee (33/1 with Betfair Sportsbook), Red Tornado (33/1 generally available)

Monday, 6 March 2017

Coral Cup, Wednesday, March 15

Some of the major bookmakers – including, at the time of writing, Bet365, William Hill, Betfred, 888Sport, RaceBets, Sky Bet and Paddy Power – are now betting ‘non-runner no bet’, or NRNB, for short, on all the races at the Cheltenham Festival. That’s good news for us, because it means that we can have a dabble at long odds in arguably the most competitive race of the week, safe in the knowledge that we’ll have a run for our money or, at worst, our money back.

The one we have in mind for the aforementioned ‘dabble’ is Charlie Mann’s progressive 6-year-old Air Force One. The son of Mountain High is currently rated 140, leaving him at number 50 in the current list of entries; the safety limit for the Coral Cup is 26, so he’ll need a fair few to drop out but, at 16/1 NRNB, he looks an attractive betting proposition.

He only had to be pushed out subsequent winner The Unit in a novices’ hurdle, over 2 miles 2 furlongs, at Taunton on his penultimate start and bettered that performance when staying on well to beat Divine Spear by 1½ lengths in a Class 2 handicap hurdle over a testing 2 miles 3½ furlongs at Ascot last month. That form bears close inspection and, while an 8lb rise in the weights makes life more difficult, he may be progressive enough to cope. Bookmakers are now starting to reveal their headline offers. 'My Betting Sites' have put together this comprehensive list of all the offers available. It's worth a look!

Selection: Cheltenham 2.50 Air Force One to win (16/1 with William Hill NRNB)

Sunday, 5 March 2017

When punters win big!

I'm sure it's true of every punter that they have their own story of a big win or a near miss - 'the one that got away'! Over the years I've come good by cashing in on the occasional especially big odds outsider bet that I've had my eye on. It's a great feeling to think that you've spotted an opportunity that others have missed and your horse has galloped home to victory, or your team has scored that all important goal. A great many truly 'big wins' in betting come as a result of accumulator bets, often a series of horse racing selections, or perhaps a string of football match bets.



It seems to me that the most noteworthy win of the former (horse racing selections) is the infamous Frankie Dettori's Magnificent 7. For a bit of history, the bookmakers were left reeling when Frankie managed the staggering feat of winning on all seven of his rides in ascot on September 28th 1996. As unbelievable as that achievement was a few punters had faith in Frankie and were heavily awarded as a result. One lucky punter scooped a mind boggling £500,000 with his magnificent seven bet. On the less lucky side, some punters bet on all of the selections as singles. One, a cleaner, walked away with just £19 as a result of her seven 50p wins.

Franie Detorri Magnificent 7 rides:

Wall Street – 2/1
Diffident – 12/1
Mark of Esteem – 100/30
Decorated Hero – 7/1
Fatefully – 7/4
Lochangel – 5/4
Fujiyama Crest – 2/1


Of course sometimes, single bets can also result in huge wins too. That's good news since not everyone has the guts to go with multibets. In recent memory the biggest single bet win that entered the public consciousness must surely be Leicester winning the 2015-16 Premier League at crazy odds of 5000-1. At those odds you've think someone would've bagged a cool £100,000+, though it seems that even Leicester fans had extreme doubts at the start of the season, and who can blame them. The biggest winner, Leigh Herbert, of Enderby in Leicestershire, placed £5 on his team winning a tidy £25,000. Most loses by bookmakers actually fell at around the 100-150-1 range though, when punters started to think that the seemingly impossible might have a chance of happening.

Wednesday, 1 March 2017

7.30 Newcastle, Wednesday, March 1

The Betway Handicap (7.30) at Newcastle on Wednesday is a competitive, albeit fairly low grade, contest, in which it’s difficult to write off any of the 17 runners with any degree of confidence. As usual, we’ve highlighted a few we believe could belie generous starting prices.

The Hooded Claw returns from an absence of 107 days and hasn’t won since May 2014, during his first spell with Tim Easterby. However, the Dandy Man gelding has dropped down the weights and ran his best race for some time when dropped in 0-75 company for his Tapeta debut on this course in November. On that occasion he ran on to finish fourth, beaten two necks and a nose and, although no better off with the second, Dark Side Dream, may be capable of building on that effort.

Meshardal hasn’t been seen in public since September and is another who’s on a long losing run, but last won a 0-85 contest, off a mark of 85, in June 2015. Ruth Carr’s 7-year-old has troubled the judge just once in 17 starts since, but he’s ludicrously well handicapped on his best form, off a mark of 71, and the switch to Tapeta at this late stage might just rekindle his enthusiasm.

Nottinghamshire trainer Roy Bowring doesn’t have many horses, but his 6-year-old Exceed And Excel gelding Foolaad has run well on both starts over a mile on Tapeta, without really getting home, and may be ready for a return to the winners’ enclosure now that he drops back to 6 furlongs. John Egan, who’s 2-4 for the yard on the all-weather, takes over from 7lb claimer Kevin Lundie, which is another encouraging sign.

Selections: Newcastle 7.30 The Hooded Claw, Meshardal, Foolaad


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Tuesday, 21 February 2017

2.00 Ludlow, Wednesday, February 22

It’s not often a midweek maiden hurdle attracts our attention, but the Bitterley Point to Point 1st April Maiden Hurdle (2.00) at Ludlow on Wednesday has attracted 16 runners, many of whom have the potential to be significantly better than they have shown so far. With the leading bookmakers offering 9/1 bar the first four in the betting, we couldn’t resist a dabble at long odds.

The first one that takes our eye is Calling Des Blins (20/1), one of two runners trained by Dan Skelton. The daughter of Konig Turf, who has produced some useful from his first crop of 5-year-olds in 2017, showed signs of ability on both starts in bumpers for Harry Fry last season, but finished only eighth of nine, beaten 27 lengths, in an ordinary novice hurdle at Taunton in January on her debut for her new yard. A winner in France on her sole start as a 3-year-old, she is surely better than her rather dismal debut over hurdles and could go well at a decent price.

Our Delboy (33/1) has been well beaten on both starts so far, including in a similar race over course and distance four weeks ago and may simply need more time. However, he comes from an excellent family, and from a yard in excellent form, so it wouldn’t be a complete surprise if he was to reward patient handling with an improved performance on just his second start over obstacles.

Johanos (16/1) was placed on both starts in bumpers and far from disgraced when fifth of 10, beaten 17½ lengths, behind Air Force One at Taunton last month on his hurdling debut. The winner franked the form in no uncertain terms when winning the Les Ambassadeurs Casino Handicap Hurdle at Ascot last Saturday, off a handicap mark of 138 so, with trainer Nigel Hawke among the winners in the last week or so, Johanos looks one to take very seriously indeed.

Selections: Ludlow 2.00 Calling Des Blins (20/1 with bet365), Our Delboy (33/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook), Johanos (16/1 with bet365)

Tuesday, 14 February 2017

RSA Novices’ Chase, Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 15

The RSA Novices’ Chase, run over 3 miles and 80 yards on the Old Course at Cheltenham, is just over four weeks away, so we thought it was time to highlight the chance of one that we fancy, at apparently generous odds, before the price evaporates. The horse in question is the progressive seven-year-old Singlefarmpayment, who can be backed at 33/1 with Betfred, Totesport, Betfair and 32Red, but is as short as 16/1 with bet365.

Listed by his trainer, Tom George, as one of his ‘five to follow’ for the 2016/17 season, the Milan gelding travelled strongly when winning a Class 2 novices’ chase over 3 miles 1½ furlongs on the New Course at Cheltenham in December, staying on well to beat Arpege D’Alene by 2½ lengths. The Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase at Ascot and the Towton Novices’Chase at Wetherby – both Grade 2 events – were mooted as possible targets following the Cheltenham success, but connections opted to return to Prestbury Park for a Class 2 novices’ handicap chase over 2 miles 5 furlongs on the New Course in January.

Sent off 5/1 joint favourite, Singlefarmpayment was held up in rear by Adrian Heskin and was just beginning a forward move when More Buck’s fell right in from of him at the twelfth fence, bringing him down. Of course, it’s impossible to tell what might have happened, but Singlefarmpayment appeared to be travelling at least as well as anything at the time. Notwithstanding his latest mishap, he clearly likes Cheltenham, stays beyond 3 miles, has winning form on good, good to soft, soft and heavy going and remains open to significant improvement after just four starts over regulation fences. He steps up to the highest level for the first time, but could well be up to the task and, at his current odds, we don’t mind paying to find out.

Selection: Singlefarmpayment to win (33/1 with Betfred, Totesport, Betfair or 32Red)

Wednesday, 1 February 2017

4.25 Towcester, Thursday, February 2

The Grimscote Handicap Hurdle (4.25) at Towcester on Thursday may not be as competitive as some of the weekend handicaps that constitute the ‘bread and butter’ of this column, but is nonetheless a lowly Class 5 affair, in which recent winning form is in short supply. Furthermore, although 2 miles 3 furlongs and 34 yards is hardly a marathon distance, the race is due to be run on a testing course on bottomless ground and could still develop into a war of attrition, which few survive.

With this in mind, we’ve tried to find one or two with stamina in abundance, who should be staying on when the others have cried enough. Thatchers Gold, for example, has troubled the judge just once in seven starts since winning a better race on soft going at Uttoxeter over two years ago, but at least we know he’s capable of winning a race and handling testing conditions, which is not something we can say for many of his rivals. His recent form is nothing special, but he drops into 0-100 company off a handicap mark 3lb lower than when last winning, so must merit consideration.

Frankly, most of these are poor or deteriorating, or both, but something has to win, so let’s row in with the lightly-raced six-year-old Scartare, who’s been well beaten at fancy prices on all six starts so far, but showed a glimmer of ability on his last outing, over 1 mile 7½ furlongs on this course seven weeks ago and may be capable of better on his handicap debut. His stamina needs to be taken on trust, as does his ability to handle heavy going, but a forward showing would hardly be huge surprise in a race ripe for a turn-up.

Selections: Towcester 4.25 Thatchers Gold, Scartare

Thursday, 26 January 2017

8.15 Newcastle, Friday, January 28

In the absence of early prices, I can’t honestly say whether Whispering Wolf will fall into the ‘outsider’ category but, with just one win, in a lowly Class 6 selling stakes at Ripon 18 months ago, from 18 starts, 1lb out of the handicap and trained by an unfashionable trainer, she really ought to. That said, the daughter of Amadeus has run creditably in defeat on her last two starts on Tapeta, including over course and distance on her penultimate start, and isn’t totally without hope. On her last visit to Gosforth Park, she was outpaced with two furlongs to run, but rallied well to finish within 1¼ lengths of Novabridge, who reopposes on 3lb terms.

In truth, she looks as if a return to 6 furlongs would do her no harm but, with Novabridge and the aptly-named Fuel Injection likely to take the field along lickety-split, she might just have the end-to-end gallop she needs to be fully effective at the minimum trip. Interestingly, jockey Barry McHugh is riding somewhere close to his minimum riding weight in the last twelve months, at 8st 6lb, so he may be able to deliver her fast and late to lift the spoils.

Selection: Newcastle 8.15 Whispering Wolf to win

Monday, 23 January 2017

Champion Hurdle Preview

The Champion Hurdle is the premier 2m hurdle race on the national hunt calendar and is the feature contest on day one of the Cheltenham Festival. This year’s race is a fascinating betting event at this stage as the top two horses in the ante-post market have not been seen yet this season due to setbacks. Therefore, it could be left open for an outsider to cause a surprise in the race.
If Faugheen returns before the Festival and looks like the horse who won the 2015 Champion Hurdle, he is clearly going to take all the beating. However, backers of the ante-post favourite are doing so on trust at the moment.
Apple’s Jade (20/1) is a horse who should not be forgotten about for the Champion Hurdle. Gordon Elliott’s runner finished second last season in the Triumph Hurdle where she was denied by Ivanovich Gorbatov by less than two lengths. A month later, though, she reversed that form in spectacular style as she won the Juvenile Hurdle at the Grand National Meeting at Aintree by 41 lengths.
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This season hasn’t quite gone to plan for connections. She made her seasonal reappearance at Down Royal in the Grade Two WKD where she was beaten by Rashaan in a four horse race. The mare also finished second later that month at Newcastle in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle where Irving held on by a nose in a close finish.
Elliott would have been delighted with the way his horse bounced back though at Fairyhouse in a strong running of the Grade One Hatton’s Grace Hurdle. She beat a quality field which included Willie Mullins’ Vroum Vroum Mag, Shaneshill and Ivanovich Gorbatov. If she produces that sort of run at Cheltenham, she has to be in the mix for the Champion Hurdle and therefore looks a big price, especially if you take advantage of the Bet365 signup offer where they will match your opening deposit up to £200.
Nichols Canyon (33/1) was third in last season’s Champion Hurdle behind Annie Power and My Tent or Yours and there is a strong chance that neither of those two horses who finished ahead of him will run in the race this year.
Given he is from a Willie Mullins yard which is full of superstars, Nichols Canyon has never quite earned the credit he deserves. He is a seven-time Grade One winner and still the only horse to have beaten Faugheen under rules.

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The seven-year-old should be entering the peak of his career shortly and he might just find his best run to date at the Festival this year which may give him a strong chance of winning the race.
Nichols Canyon started his campaign in the Grade One Morgiana Hurdle back in November where he scored by an impressive 12 lengths. Unfortunately he was turned over at odds of 2/5 last time out at Leopardstown in the Ryanair Hurdle but if you can forgive that last run, he looks a huge price in the Champion Hurdle
Selections: Apple’s Jade (25/1 with bet365), Nichols Canyon (33/1 with Sportingbet)

Thursday, 12 January 2017

Betfred Classic Chase Preview

The Betfred Classic Chase (Saturday 3.35), run over 3 miles 5 furlongs at Warwick, has thrown up winners at 20/1, 18/1, 14/1 and 10/1 in the last ten years and this year’s renewal will, as ever, provide a thorough test of stamina and jumping ability.

Goodtoknow (40/1) has only won four of his 27 starts under Rules, but has won over 3 miles 4½ furlongs, revels in testing conditions and is reasonably weighted on his best form. He hasn’t shown a great deal in two starts this term, but he should be fighting fit and has dropped back to his last winning mark, so isn’t one to dismiss out of hand. He probably needs a career-best effort to win this, but the step back up in distance on soft going is in his favour, particularly if first-time blinkers have the desired effect.

Kingswell Theatre (33/1) has yet to win beyond 2 miles 7½ furlongs, but has recorded three of his four career wins on soft or heavy going and has only been tried beyond 3 miles twice. He made a respectable return to action when third of 14, beaten 17 lengths, behind Lamb Or Cod in the Welsh National Trial at Chepstow in December and lost a shoe when pulled up over 3 miles 2½ furlongs at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. Clearly he has risks attached but, like Goodtoknow, is back on his last winning mark and could belie generous odds with a forward showing.

Selections: Goodtoknow (40/1 with Coral), Kingswell Theatre (33/1 generally available)