Triple Grade 1 winner Arrogate is
officially rated 16lb superior to his nearest rivals in the Dubai
World Cup (4.45) at Meydan on Saturday and correspondingly long odds
on (4/11) to extend his winning sequence. However, as demonstrated by
the defeat of 2/9 favourite Douvan in the Queen Mother Champion Chase
at the recent Cheltenham Festival, horses are not machines, so there
may be some value in opposing Bob Baffert’s 4-year-old.
The son of Unbridled’s Song has yet
to race outside North America and, although Baffert apparently has no
qualms about the Meydan surface and is happy with the condition of
his charge, there can be no guarantees that the long journey from
California hasn’t taken its toll.
Move Up (66/1) made decent
progress on turf last season, progressing from handicaps to win twice
in Group company over 1 mile 4 furlongs. The Dubawi colt ran well on
his first attempt on dirt, and in Grade 1 company, when fourth of 8,
beaten 3¼ lengths, behind Long River in the Al Maktoum Challenge R3
over course and distance three weeks ago. Saeed bin Suroor’s
4-year-old is entitled to improve for that run, his first since
October, and may be capable of reversing the form with the winner and
the second, Special Fighter, despite reopposing on identical terms.
In fact, Arrogate aside, Move Up has
very little to find with anything else in the field, so the 25/1
available with Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook without the
favourite looks cracking value.
Selection: Move Up w/o
Arrogate (25/1 with Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook)
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