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Sunday, 21 May 2017

6:25 Windsor (22nd May)

British Stallions EBF FILLIES' Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race)

A Fillies' Novice Stakes over 6f 12y on good to soft ground. Decent price money on offer sees eight two-year-olds take part.

Charlie Appleby has been the king of debut winners this season such is the force of Godolphin. Dathanna is made favourite (15/8) in the tissue prices but it will be interesting to see if she is opposed to what could be a respectable form horse. 

Dathanna is a daughter of Dubawi is likely to have the ability but needs to bit ready against more experienced rivals. 

Cardaw Lily hails from Richard Hughes who I have been quite critical of as a trainer. He often fails miserably with fancied horses although this daughter of Lawman ran well on debut at Ascot a race that is likely to yield many winners. Certainly the first three look capable of a higher class.This £35,000 yearling purchase was sent off 33-1. She was slow away but ran on well in the closing stages without being hard pressed. With that experience under her belt, you have to feel a big race.

Angel Of The South was behind. Dean Ivory's daughter of Dark Angel was fancied to go well on debut at this course and finished second to Rock Of Estonia. Considering she cost £170,000 at the yearling sales it is fair to imagine connections expected a bold show at Ascot. She didn't run well at all. However, it was a competitive race so you have to be careful because it may have been her running. She led that day with Mrs Gallagher and thought she went a stride too fast for her ability. The betting kind of suggests the bookmakers think the same. It will be interesting to see how both Cardaw Law and Angel Of The South go over this extra furlong. I would prefer the former but it will be intriguing.

Richard Hannon's Elysium Dream is another filly who ran in a hot maiden on debut won impressively by One Minute. This daughter of Champs Elysees looked clueless that day when 20/1. The leaders set a frantic pace but even so she was toiling behind like she had no hope of even being competitive. However, she plugged on and was chasing down the second and third with some aggression in the closing furlong. There is little doubt the placed horses had run out of energy so you have to be slightly cautious and wonder if Elysium Dream was flattered. This extra yardage will help but she wouldn't want to be slow into stride on this dog leg. 

Andrew Balding does well at this course so Angel Islington may go ok. Priced at 11/1 currently, it's certainly worth a look.

Similarly, Clive Cox can go win with debutantes. Windsor used to be a significant course for this trainer in the good old days so it is interesting to see Little Miss Lilly (also 11/1). 

Conclusion: Dathanna will have her supporters. Debutantes for this stable have done nothing wrong this season so that is a positive and six furlongs is easier for making ground if a touch slow into stride. I would take a watching brief. Cardaw Lily should go well and appreciate this extra furlong. She will improve from a nice introduction at Ascot. On that form, she should beat Angel Of The South but it is a matter of debate whether she ran her race that day. It was a strange run and I wouldn't give up hope on Ivory's horse just yet. However, I would need a double-figure price to take an interest. Not sure what to think about Elysium Dream. She could be a class act but needs to be much livelier this time round. The extra furlong should be a huge positive and that experience could have blown the cobwebs away. Angel Islington and Little Miss Lilly have claims and would be my picks here!

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