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Saturday, 9 February 2019

Grand National Winners with the Longest Odds


We're now a little under two months until the 2019 Grand National (Saturday 6th April) and we'll once again get to witness the most popular event of the UK National Hunt season. Who amongst us doesn't enjoy a well earned flutter on what is nothing short of a national institution at this point, and has roots going back a century and a half. The National is a sporting spectacle each and every one of us has grown up with and is a source of fond memories for most racing fans. Whether it's the office sweepstake, following form of tipsters or just a name you like the sound of, we all have our own systems and stories surrounding the race and we all enjoy feeling part of the excitement and action.

It's still very much early days but current Grand National front runners for the 2019 race include Tiger Roll and Vintage Clouds. For those looking for a bit more bang for their buck, outsider options extend to several selections of 100-1 + such as Jarob, Morney Wing and Lieutenant Colonel (the latter of which is available at 200-1). We'll be taking a closer look at the betting as the race approaches.


Of course having a huge priced winner at the Grand National is one of those 'tell the grandchildren' moments that we'd all love to have. I've taken a look through the archives to find the biggest odds winners since the very beginning of The Grand National in 1836. Here they all are:

Date       Winner              Age      Odds (SP)
1866       Salamander         7        40/1
1888       Playfair               7        40/1
1896       The Soarer          7        40/1
1908       Rubio                 10       66/1
1928       Tipperary Tim    10      100/1
1929       Gregalach           7        100/1
1932       Forbra                 7        50/1
1938       Battleship          11        40/1
1947      Caughoo              8        100/1
1948      Sheila's Cottage   9         50/1
1949      Russian Hero       9         66/1
1951      Nickel Coin         9         40/1
1963      Ayala                   9         66/1
1966      Anglo                  8         50/1
1967     Foinavon              9        100/1
1980     Ben Nevis            12       40/1
1985     Last Suspect        11        50/1
1995     Royal Athlete      12        40/1
2009     Mon Mome          9        100/1
2013    Auroras Encore    11        66/1

The above accounts for all 40-1 and above Grand National winners in the race's history, so true outsider winners are rather 'few and far between' in the big picture, but with the 1940's and 1960's being real hotspots for outsider wins. At six years since the last 40-1+ winner some would argue that we're 'due one', so it might be worth a punt on a longshot if you spot something specific that you like about it. It's worth adding that these are all SP odds too, so often they may have been bigger and/or will certainly have been on betting exchanges since the advent of those.

Of note is that the bigger priced winners over more recent decades are typically older, and so that might be something that could factor into your thinking and decision making too. Winning times have been fairly consistent over recent years,. That might shock some since there are so many vairables at play and hurdles are a challenge to traverse at the best of times, especially when horses start to tire over the arduous 4 miles 514 yards distance . If you have your eye on an outsider for the Grand National already, which one and why?

Sunday, 3 February 2019

The Biggest Priced Grand National Winners


We're now a little under two months until the 2019 Grand National (Saturday 6th April) and we'll once again get to witness the most popular event of the UK National Hunt season. Who amongst us doesn't enjoy a well earned flutter on what is nothing short of a national institution at this point, and has roots going back some 150 years. The National is a sporting spectacle each and every one of us has grown up with and is wealth of fund memories for most racing fans. Whether it's the office sweepstake, following form of tipsters or just a name you like, we all have our own systems and stories surrounding the race and we all enjoy feeling part of the action.

It's still very much early days but early front runners for the 2019 Grand National include Tiger Roll and Vintage Clouds. For those looking for a bit more bang for their buck, outsider options include several selections of 100-1 + such as Jarob, Morney Wing and Lieutenant Colonel (the latter of which is available at 200-1). We'll be taking a closer look at the betting as the race approaches.


Of course getting a huge priced winner at the Grand National is one of those 'tell the grandchildren' moments that we'd all love to be part of. I've taken a look through the archives to find the biggest odds winners since the very beginning of The Grand National in 1836:

Date       Winner              Age      Odds (SP)
1866       Salamander         7        40/1
1888       Playfair               7        40/1
1896       The Soarer          7        40/1
1908       Rubio                 10       66/1
1928       Tipperary Tim    10      100/1
1929       Gregalach           7        100/1
1932       Forbra                 7        50/1
1938       Battleship          11        40/1
1947      Caughoo              8        100/1
1948      Sheila's Cottage   9         50/1
1949      Russian Hero       9         66/1
1951      Nickel Coin         9         40/1
1963      Ayala                   9         66/1
1966      Anglo                  8         50/1
1967     Foinavon              9        100/1
1980     Ben Nevis            12       40/1
1985     Last Suspect        11        50/1
1995     Royal Athlete      12        40/1
2009     Mon Mome          9        100/1
2013    Auroras Encore    11        66/1

The above account for all 40-1 and above Grand National winners in the race's history, so big winners are rather 'few and far  between' in the big picture, with the 1940's and 1960's being real hotspots for outsider wins. At six years since the last 40-1+ winner some would argue that we're 'due one', so it might be worth a punt on a longshot if you spot something specific that you like about it. It's worth adding that these are all SP odds too, so often they may have been bigger and/or will certainly have been on betting exchanges since the advent of those.

Of note is that the bigger priced winners over more recent decades are typically older, and so that might be something that could factor into your thinking and decision making too. Winning times have been fairly consistent over recent years, that may shock some since there are so many vairables at play and hurdles are a challenge to traverse at the best of times, especially when horses start to tire over  the 4 miles 514 yards distance . If you have your eye on an outsider for the Grand National already, which one and why?

Sunday, 20 January 2019

5.45 Newcastle, Tuesday, January 22


Suffolk trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam has only ever had four runners on the Tapeta surface at Newcastle, but two of them have won, which makes the entry of Suzi’s Connoisseur, who has just his start for the yard, in the Betway Conditions Stakes (5.45) on Tuesday evening all the more interesting. The eight-year-old hacked up in a 0-80 handicap, over 6 furlongs, at Lingfield on his stable debut in December – earning himself a 10lb rise in the weights – but, unsurprisingly, finished well beaten in a similar conditions race to this one, again over 6 furlongs, on Boxing Day; unsurprisingly because he met all five of his rivals that day on at least 13lb worse terms than he would have done in a handicap and, in the case of the easy winner, Kachy, 20lb worse.



The son of Art Connoisseur has subsequently been dropped 1lb to a handicap mark of 86 and, once again, meets all his rivals on disadvantageous terms, so the thinking behind his entry is hard to fathom. Suzi’s Connoisseur hasn’t raced over the minimum trip since his two-year-old days, so surely Jane Chapple-Hyam doesn’t think he can beat five-furlong specialist Encore D’Or – to name but one of the more likely winners – on 23lb disadvantageous terms? Or maybe she does?



Either way, aside from the possibility of collecting fourth or fifth money, Suzi’s Connoisseur also runs the risk of ruining his handicap mark forever, if he runs above expectations. Unless connections know something we don’t and plan an almighty gamble, Suzi’s Connoisseur seems certain to be sent off at long odds – on the grounds that the handicapper doesn’t make mistakes of the magnitude required for him to win – and looks worth a small wager, if only to find out what on earth they’re playing at.



Selection: Newcastle 5.45 Suzi’s Connoisseur to win 25-1