Monday, 22 February 2021
Thursday, 7 January 2021
Norton’s Coin
The Cheltenham Festival
is, of course, the pinnacle of National Hunt racing and, granted the
host of competitive races on offer, long-priced winners are to be
expected. However, the longest-priced winner in the history of the
Cheltenham Festival came not, as you might expect, in a traditional
‘cavalry charge’, such as the Coral Cup, Pertemps Final or County
Hurdle, but in the Cheltenham Gold Cup itself.
Indeed, the victory of
100/1 outsider Norton’s Coin in the 1990 Cheltenham Gold Cup was
reported in the ‘Racing Post’ the following day under the
headline ‘Shock of the Century’. In a real-life rags-to-riches
story to rival the fictional ‘National Velvet’, Norton’s Coin
was bred, owned and trained by Sirrell Griffiths, a permit-holder
from Carmarthenshire in West Wales, who had just three horses at the
time. Griffiths had originally intended to run Norton’s Coin in a
handicap chase, but failed to declare the nine-year-old. He opted for
the Gold Cup instead when he learned that Jenny Pitman intended to
run a horse that Norton’s Coin had beaten, seeking to finish in the
first five or six to recoup his entry fee.
Despite his
eye-watering starting price, Norton’s Coin never gave his
supporters – not that he had many – an anxious moment. On the
prevailing good to firm going, he was always travelling well under
jockey Graham McCourt and, having taken the lead on the infamously
stiff ‘Cheltenham Hill’, battled on to hold third-favourite Toby
Tobias by three-quarters of a length. Defending champion, and odds-on
favourite, Desert Orchid finished third, a further four lengths away,
and the winning time, 6 minutes 30.9 seconds.
Friday, 18 December 2020
How to Pick an Outsider
‘A difference of opinion is what
makes horse racing and missionaries’, or so said American
entertainer Will Rogers. He was right insofar as bookmakers’ odds
are, after all, just an opinion of the likely outcome of a horse
race. Bookmakers have an effective ‘jungle telegraph’ and are
likely to be at least as well informed as the average punter but,
even so, outsiders do win, and win fairly often.
In the absence of information that is
not in the public domain, a.k.a. ‘inside’ information, from a
jockey, owner or trainer, picking an outsider with a winning chance
typically involves thinking ‘outside the box’ a little. Horses
with recent winning, or placed, form, especially those that are
attempting little or nothing more than they have achieved in the
past, in terms of class, course, distance and going, are always
likely to be at the forefront of the betting market for an upcoming
race.
The other end of the market, where
likely outsiders are to be found, is typically dominated by horses
that have disappointed, for whatever reason, on recent starts. The
trick, therefore, is to find a horse that has previously shown itself
capable of winning the race under consideration and is undergoing a
favourable change of circumstances. For example, a horse with winning
form on good going may struggle to reproduce that form on soft, or
heavy, going during the winter, but does not become devoid of
ability, and may be capable of winning again under its preferred
conditions.
Similar comments apply to the
characteristics of the course, or courses, on which a horse has been
running recently, the class in, and the distance over, which it has
been competing and so on. In simple terms, look for a horse that is
trying something ‘different’ from its recent races, which is
likely to show it in a more favourable light. This could, say, extend
to young horse making its handicap debut after showing signs of
promise in ‘weight-for-age’ races. In this scenario, and others,
speed ratings, such as those published under the ‘Topspeed’
banner in the Racing Post, can often provide insight into the value
of previous form before it becomes obvious to the bookmakers.
Tuesday, 10 November 2020
Mon Mome
Mon Mome, the 100/1
winner of the 2009 Grand National, was the latest of small, select
band of horses – in fact, just five since 1839 – to win the
celebrated steeplechase at treble-figure odds. However, bearing in
mind that, a little over three months earlier, Venetia Williams’
nine-year-old had been sent off 9/2 favourite for the Welsh National
at Chepstow, it can be argued that the bookmakers, for once, erred on
the side of generosity by offering such long odds.
Mon Mome had completed the National Course once before, when finishing a distant tenth in 2008 but, in fairness, appeared to have little chance of reversing the form with the winner, Comply Or Die, who reopposed on just 8lb worse terms for 58 lengths. His most recent form, a similarly distant last of eight finishers in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter, offered little cause for encouragement and, with exactly 11 stone to carry, he looked to have plenty of weight.
Nevertheless, those who
kept faith in the Passing Sale gelding were in for a pleasant, and
lucrative, surprise. Patiently ridden by Liam Treadwell, Mon Mome
made steady headway from the rear of the field towards the end of the
first circuit and crossing the Melling Road for the final time was on
the heels of the leaders. Second favourite My Will led over the
second-last fence, but was headed by Comply Or Die on the run to the
final obstacle. Mon Mome jumped the last upsides the defending
champion and soon asserted, stretching clear on the run-in to win by
12 lengths.
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