The word ‘value’ frequently bandied around
so often in horse racing circles that it’s almost lost all meaning.
If we say that a horse represents value at the odds on offer, we mean
that the betting market – in other words, the bookmakers and the
betting public – has underestimated its winning chance and hence
offered longer odds than expected. Of course, whether or not a horse
represents value is a matter of opinion, based on your assessment of
its winning chance.
One way to formalise the process is to
create an odds line, which expresses an opinion, in the form of odds,
about the winning chance of each horse. You can read all about
creating your own odds line here but, essentially, you need to:
Assign a numeric rating, such as a
Racing Post Rating (RPR) or Timeform rating, to each horse in the
race.
Add up the ratings for each horse to
obtain a total.
Divide each individual rating by the
total to obtain the probability of each horse winning the race.
Calculate the reciprocal of each
probability to obtain the odds against the horse winning the race.
Compare the ‘real world’ odds on
offer with those in your odds line to determine which horses
represent value and which don’t.
Of course, you may not have the time,
inclination or resources to create an odds line for every race you
analyse and, certainly, in smaller fields it’s possible to
calculate acceptable odds for your selection in a less formal way, by
using your skill and judgement. By way of illustration, imagine a
hypothetical race with six runners, in which you’ve identified a
likely selection and a possible danger to the selection, based on
your analysis on the form book. Allowing one point, or even money,
for the unexpected and one point for the danger to your selection,
2/1 or longer odds would represent value, while anything shorter than
2/1 would not.
Note that allowing one point for the
unexpected means that, even in race where your selection has no
apparent dangers, the minimum odds you’d accept would be even
money. This precludes backing any horse at odds-on, which isn’t a
bad philosophy for the average punter. If you back, say, a 4/7
chance, you’ll be more relieved at not losing 7 points than winning
4 points once the race is over. Try it if you don’t believe me.
Many bookmakers now offer ‘guaranteed’
prices, which mean that even busy punters are no longer subject,
solely, to the vagaries of the S.P. market. If you’re making
selections based on sound winning potential, it’s only reasonable
to expect that other punters will draw the same conclusions about
them and shorten the odds on offer about them in due course. A quick
look at Oddschecker, or a similar odds comparison site, will soon
tell you if the odds on offer from your chosen bookmaker are
competitive and, unless they’re artificially short, there’s
really no reason not to take a guaranteed price.
As a final word on the thorny topic of
value, while it’s true that horses that fail to complete the course
over hurdles or fences, for whatever reason, are often sent off at
seemingly generous prices on their next start, beware of apparently
‘unlucky’ losers. If a horse falls or unseats its rider with a
race apparently at its mercy, it may be priced as if it had actually
won the race and, if so, may be best left alone until is does
actually win a race.
