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Tuesday, 17 March 2020

Grand National Outsiders Over The Years


The Grand National was first run, as the Grand Liverpool Steeplechase, in 1839 and has produced five winners at 100/1, the most famous of which must be Foinavon. In 1967, at the twenty-third fence, which now bears his name, Foinavon was the only horse to avoid a mêlée caused by the riderless Popham Down, which brought everything else in the race to a standstill. Gifted a lead of 30 lengths or so, Foinavon and jockey John Buckingham made the best of their way home and, although hotly pursued by the favourite, Honey End, who had been remounted, they crossed the line 15 lengths ahead for an unlikely success.

Of course, 42 years later, Mon Mome emulated Foinavon by winning the 2009 Grand National at 100/1 and did so in rather more orthodox circumstances. In fact, Mon Mome had finished tenth in the National, albeit beaten 58 lengths, the previous year and, earlier in the 2008/09 season, had started favourite for the Welsh National at Chepstow. Nevertheless, after a series of indifferent efforts, he was considered to have little or no chance, but returned to form with a vengeance, sweeping clear on the run-in to beat the 2008 winner, Comply Or Die by 12 lengths. Of course, his win made trainer Venetia Williams just the second woman, after Jenny Pitman, to saddle a National winner.

Speaking of which, four years later, in 2013, along came another horse with little or no chance, according to the layers, Auroras Encore, to carve his name into Grand National history at 66/1. Coincidentally, trained by another woman, Sue Smith, Auroras Encore had no previous experience of the National fences, but had shown himself well suited by a test of stamina when just touched off in the Scottish Grand National, over 4 miles, at Ayr the previous season. However, he had failed to trouble the judge in seven subsequent starts, including three non-completions, so despite being 6lb lower in the weights than at Ayr, he lined up at Aintree as a largely unconsidered ‘rag’. However, he gave his supporters few anxious moments and, having taken up the running at the final fence, stayed on well to win by 9 lengths.

So as we see illustrated here, depending on your perspective, an outsider winning the Grand National can be viewed to be anything from panning for gold and a real freak event, to something more akin to a golden opportunity. It could certainly be something you keep in mind as you decide who to bet on in Grand National 2020 and are able to spot the diamond in the rough from the many 'also rans'. This can be especially fruitful on the exchanges where outsider odds reach mind boggling proportions. Some however, will consider the likelihood to be a little too few and far between, instead prefering to opt for a favourite or at least a proven selection. It's 'horses for courses'  and there's always an aspect of luck to an event with so many variables. Good luck to you whatever your individual approach may be!



Friday, 24 January 2020

You Can’t Win If You Don’t Enter: Cheltenham Gold Cup Outsiders


The Cheltenham Gold Cup was first run, as a steeplechase, in 1924 and, with the exception of five cancellations – two during World War II and three more for frost, flooding and foot-and-mouth disease – has been run every year since. However, in the long, illustrious history of the most prestigious steeplechase in Britain the winner has been returned at odds of 33/1, or longer, just three times.


The first ‘shock’ winner of the ‘Blue Riband’ event was Gay Donald, trained by Jim Ford and ridden by Tony Grantham, at 33/1 in 1955. Gay Donald cost £225 as a unbroken four-year-old and had not previous shown himself to be a top-class steeplechaser but, on difficult ground, he soon poached a long lead, which he never surrendered, despite blundering his way through the final two fences.



Also sent off at ‘double carpet’ was the 1970 winner, L’Escargot, although to his credit he also won the Cheltenham Gold Cup again in 1971, when sent off 7/2 joint-favourite. On the first occasion, though, despite showing decent form beforehand, he started an unconsidered outsider. His cause was helped, in no small part, by the fall of hot favourite Kinloe Brae at the third-last fence, but he stayed on stoutly up the hill to beat French Tan by 1½ lengths.



Next up, in the chronicle of Cheltenham Gold Cup outsiders, is the ‘daddy of them all’, Norton’s Coin who, at 100/1, was the longest-priced winner in the history of the race. Unfashionably bred, and one of just three horses trained by Carmarthen permit-holder Sirrell Griffths, Norton’s Coin was originally intended to run in the Cathcart Challenge Cup, but by the time Griffiths realised he wasn’t qualified entries for the Mildmay of Flete, his second choice, had already closed. Despite an early mistake, Norton’s Coin was always travelling well under Graham McCourt and led on the run-in to beat Toby Tobias and odds-on-favourite Desert Orchid by three-quarters of a length and four lengths, smashing the course record in the process.

Saturday, 14 December 2019

Mudawin


Horse racing is notoriously unpredictable but, even so, triple-figure winners are something of a rarity. In the history of the Grand National, which was first run in 1839, just five winners have been returned at odds of 100/1. Some 100/1 winners fully deserve their stupendous starting price – and only manage to win by some outlandish fluke, or ‘act of God’ – while others, patently, do not.

The victory of Mudawin, at 100/1, in the Ebor Handicap at York in 2006 is a case in point. Originally owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum and trained by Marcus Tregoning, for whom he won a couple of races as a three-year-old, Mudawin was off the course for 645 days before making his debut for Jane Chapple-Hyam in March, 2006. Three starts later, he won a handicap over a mile-and-a-half at Kempton in May under John Egan. He finished a creditable third, beaten 2½ lengths and 2 lengths, in a higher grade handicap over a mile-and-three-quarters at Goodwood the following month and, reunited with Egan, won again on his second attempt at that distance at Sandown Park two weeks later.


However, on his next start, over two miles at Ascot – for which he was sent off joint-fourth choice of the nine runners, at 8/1 – Mudawin went lame and, understandably, was eased down in the closing stages to finish a long way last, beaten 52 lengths. Question marks about his well-being appear to be the only reason that, a month later, he was sent off at 100/1 for the Ebor Handicap. Admittedly, he was contesting the most valuable handicap race in Europe but, even so, he had won two of his three starts prior to his Ascot misfortune and was racing off a handicap mark just 3lb higher than when winning at Sandown.

Having been held up at the rear of the 19-strong field at York, as was customary, Mudawin was matched at odds of up to 269/1 on the Betfair betting exchange, but made headway on the outside of the field with over of a quarter-of-a-mile to run. The well-fancied pair Young Mick and Glistening disputed the lead inside the final furlong but, despite hanging left in the closing stages, Mudawin stayed on well to lead in the final strides to win by a head and a short head. His starting price, of 100/1, was the longest in the history of the Ebor Handicap, first run in 1843.


Tuesday, 19 November 2019

Five Things You Should Always Consider Before Placing a Horse Racing Bet


There is nothing quite like the buzz of watching a horse race when you have money riding on the outcome. Placing a bet has the ability to transform the race into a thrilling event, but actually selecting a horse from the field can be a daunting prospect for newcomers. You really should study the form of each runner before laying down your hard-earned cash, ensuring that you are making an educated guess from a position of knowledge. These are the five key things that you should always look at before placing a horse racing bet:

The Going

This describes the condition of the ground at the racecourse on a particular day. In summer the going is often firm due to a lack of rain. A dry surface allows the horses to run faster and this is generally when you will see the quickest race times. If a course has been battered by rain over a considerable period of time you will find the going to be heavy. This provides a real test of each horse’s stamina, as the wet ground is much harder to run on. Heavy going is alternatively referred to as a bog or as sloppy. In between firm and heavy, you will find good to firm, good, good to soft and soft.

The going matters because different horses thrive on different surfaces. Some hate heavy going and they will often be withdrawn from a race if there has been too much rain. Others positively relish it: Bristol De Mai loves running in the slop and has secured some impressive victories after rainy spells. First you need to check what the ground is like at a racecourse on the day you want to place your bet, and then you must investigate how well each runner has fared in similar conditions. Tipsters will often help you out, but it is good to arm yourself with as much information as possible before placing a wager.



Form of the Runners



You can pore over a form guide of the runners before placing a bet on a particular race. A horse’s form relates to the results it has secured. You should study current form and overall form. Check out how well a horse has fared in his or her last few races, noting the quality of the race, the calibre of rivals faced, the distance and of course the going in each run.

If a horse has won its last three races then it is likely to be an appealing choice. However, it is not that simple. It might have won those three races at Group 3 level, and it is now stepping up to a more challenging Group 1 race and taking on more dangerous rivals. It might have won those three races over a particular distance and now it is stepping up in trip to run over a longer distance. It might have won when the going was soft, but now it is firm.

Ideally you want to find evidence of a horse flourishing over a similar distance and in similar conditions. You will often note that runners in a particular race have locked horns before, so you should bear in mind who prevailed.

You should also compare current form to overall form. If a horse has run poorly over its last few races, but it has a strong overall record, it could simply be a glitch. You can often enjoy your greatest successes as a punter by identifying horses that are in poor form but have the potential to rediscover past magic. Bristol De Mai was struggling for form and went off at 13/2 to win the 2018 Betfair Chase, but ended up surging to victory.

You should also check to see how long it is since the horse’s last race, as you need to bear in mind fatigue and rustiness. If it is a big race, you will also be able to access a wealth of statistical information about the type of horse that generally secures victory, including age and form.

Course Record of the Runners

It is worth noting that some horses thrive at particular courses and struggle at others. In fact, it is common to see horses consistently running well at some courses but flopping elsewhere. If a runner has secured a victory over a similar distance at that course before then it becomes an appealing choice.

Most horses have a preferred distance, so you should always pay close attention to runners that are stepping up or down in distance. It is also advisable to take a close look at horses that are stepping up or down in class, but course record is an equally important consideration. You should also check out the form of the jockey and the trainer, as some have a great record at particular courses or meeting.



Best Odds on Offer



You should always shop around for the best odds before betting on a particular horse. Rival bookmakers often price up a race differently and you can net yourself a much higher potential profit by hunting out the most attractive odds. For example, you might see a horse priced at 3/1 by one bookmaker, 10/3 by another, 7/2 by a third bookie and 4/1 by another. If you are placing a £50 bet, you will stand to earn a £200 profit as opposed to £150 by going to the bookmaker offering 4/1 instead of the bookmaker offering 3/1. This can ultimately be the difference between generating an overall profit or a loss as on a given day.

You can use odds comparison sites in order to see which bookies offer the best prices on a race. You will eventually notice a pattern whereby two or three sites typically offer market-leading odds. Some bookmakers, such as Marathonbet.co.uk, consistently offer generous odds, so it is advisable to sign up for an online account with them. This will allow you to earn an extra profit on successful bet, and that can really add up over time.



Place Terms



Many punters simply stick to betting on which horse will win a particular race, but there are alternative options at your disposal. You can look at forecasts and tricasts, for example. A great option is the each-way bet. This essentially sees your stake divided in half. If you bet £10 each-way on a horse, £10 will go on it winning the race and £10 will go on it placing, resulting in an overall stake of £20. Placing means finishing in either the top two, three or four places, depending on how many runners there are in the race. You will be informed of the place terms before putting on a bet.

If it is a small field of runners, only the top two finishers will count for an each-way bet. If it is a huge field you might be paid out if your horse finishes third or fourth. Some bookmakers even pay out on the top five finishers at the Grand National due to the size of the field. The place terms will also indicate the fraction of the odds you will be paid if the horse places.

Let’s say you fancy a horse Dutch Delight to win the Champion Hurdle at odds of 10/1, and the place terms are a fifth of the odds on the top three places. If he you bet £10 each-way and he finishes third, you will make a £10 profit. This is because the win part of your bet would fail, but the place part of your bet would pay off. You would gain a fifth of the odds, and a fifth of 10/1 is 10/5, or 2/1. A £10 bet at 2/1 would winnings of £20. You would get your £10 stake back too, resulting in a return of £30 and a profit of £10.

If Dutch Delight won the race, both the win and the place parts of your bet would pay off. You would have £10 at 10/1, which results in a £100 profit, and £10 at 10/5 on the place, resulting in a £20 profit. That would leave a total profit of £120 and a return of £140, as you get both parts of your stake back.

You should always check the place terms before putting on an each-way bet. Sometimes you will see a quarter of the odds on the top four, and at other times it is a fifth of the odds on the top three, or a quarter of the odds on the top four. If bookmakers are paying a quarter of the odds, you will earn a profit if the odds assigned to your horse are greater than 4/1 and it places. If bookmakers are paying a fifth of the odds, you will earn a profit if the odds assigned to your horse are greater than 5/1 and it places.