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Wednesday 21 December 2011

Simon Whitlock

It was interesting to see the reaction to the discussion on Sky Sports of Simon Whitlock's ongoing leg injury in the PDC world darts championship. He drifted out to 90-1 plus to win the competition on Betfair, and to even money from 1.34 to win the match. He went on the decimate Dennis Smith with a 105 average, 60% check out, scoring 7 180s along the way. To put this in perspective no other player has averaged over 100 in the first round. In his post match interview Whitlock stated "I've got a broken leg, not a broken arm".

It may be that the lack of expectation helped his darts, but regardless of that it was still a top class performance. He's currently 13.5 to win the tournament. Not exactly generous odds, but if his current vein of form continues it wouldn't be a great surprise if he went all the way.

Friday 16 December 2011

Outsider Intro

There are hundreds of online gambling blogs, but very few of them deal solely with big priced selections. In part that may be because the win rate and hence the perceived success rate is much reduced. If someone is offering up even money selections they're bound to have frequent wins even if they aren't doing particularly well. With outsiders the very opposite may be true. It's just not realistic to hope for a high win to loss ratio when you're concentrating on selections that are, say, 20-1 or more. That of course doesn't mean that you can't or won't be successful by looking for outsider value though.

The aim of this blog is to cover big priced betting opportunities, and detail the success or failure in doing so. I'll be listing all of my selections and will also be opening up the blog to others with interesting thoughts relating to outsiders. Many of the selections will be from the world of horse racing, though I won't limit the interest to that sport alone. There are plenty of outsider betting opportunities in boxing, darts, football and more. That's without starting on the often wildly unpredictable world of reality TV. Stay tuned!