Powered by Blogger.

Sunday 18 June 2017

Bullington Bandit

Bulinton Badnit was 200-1 on Betfair, with some taken at several hundred to one in-running in the 1.30 Newbury race (15th June). A good day for some (and a very bad one for others!)

Tuesday 13 June 2017

2:10 Yarmouth (Wednesday 14th June)

Wait One Minute, Sovereign State Gets My Vote

An EBF Novice Stakes (Plus 10) over 5f 42y on good to firm going. Just five runners: two with race experience and a trio of debutantes. 

One Minute will be the answer to the question for many punters here. To be honest, you can't knock this strapping filly trained by William Haggas.  This bay is a daughter of Kodiac and a cracking 2yo purchase at the breeze-up sales for £52,000. She made her debut in May racing over the minimum trip. It looked a tall order taking on a field of mostly colts, especially To Wafij, trained by Roger Varian, who had won well over course and distance. He had to shoulder a winner's penalty but One Minute disposed of him like a black widow spider looking for a Big Mac before a date. 

This January foal ran out an easy win by more than three lengths. 

The form of that race has been franked on a number of occasions. It is probably the case that To Wafij and Demons Rock went a stride too fast that day, while Elysium Dream needed an extra furlong which proved the point when needing every yard to win her next start. One Minute has to carry a penalty, which is a fair test even for a talent. At odds of 4/9f she will most likely be a banker for most punters who like to dig deep. 

That's all good and well. However, even the best horses get beaten often when you least expect.

There may be a couple of outsiders worthy of respect. 

Philip McBride is a canny trainer. He is particularly good with his fillies and those running on their second start. Onefootinparadise is a bay daughter of Footstepsinthesand and a cheap purchase at just 2,000G. That price tag alone will put most punters off betting. There is no doubt she needs to improve on that debut. The form is no more than average but she suffered a terribly slow start and ran on with spirit. McBride gives the honours to an apprentice to take a valuable 5lb off her back. The betting is a key factor. We are looking at a big price chance but I wouldn't bet if this filly is priced over 20/1. However, if priced about 14/1 & less SP she could be worthy of a small each-way bet. 

Sovereign State is interesting. This bay colt needs to be primed to win on debut. However, I can be pretty confident this son of Compton Place has ability. Racing in the ownership of Qatar Racing Ltd, he looks a great breeze-up purchase at just £30,000. Readers may have noticed that Robert Cowell sent out an exciting filly to win the Hilary Needler Stakes at Beverley on debut. The Brian Yeardley Stakes for colts had a very interesting entry who didn't run. It was Sovereign State. That entry is a very good indicator that Cowell rates this colt and I suspect he will run a big race here. 

Viscount Loftus and May Girl are best watched.

Conclusion: One Minute looks a filly going places and if winning here you can bet connections will be viewing Royal Ascot with interest. True, she will take some beating but whether you want to jump in at 4/9f carrying a penalty is another matter. If this was a donkey derby I would be thinking she is half way to a certainty myself but I would be fearful of Sovereign State. He is likely to have ability and we know from Cowell's past exploits that he can train a talent to win on debut. I would be fearful of this colt. Onefootinparadise looks a poor relation to these with regard purchase price but McBride is no fool. The betting will tell the story and if a huge price I would say look to the two favourites. However, if she is 14/1 & less SP she may be a little tougher than you think. If you are convinced the fvourite will win with ease, I'd have a small cover bet on Sovereign State just to help you sleep at night!

Friday 9 June 2017

Boris Johnson for Prime Minister?

Boris Johnson for Prime Minister? Personally, it's not a thought that fills me with boundless joy, but really I'm just bleary eyed, election watching, and casting my mind back to an outsider that one punter bet on late last month. A week or so back, people were laughing themselves silly at a £2000 bet one Labrokes punter made on Boris Johnson to be prime minister after the 2017 election (by July 1st). It led to much head scratching and the odd comment that this guy must be a nut!

As it turns out though, it seems like the punter was thinking along the right lines. At time of writing, the 2017 general election seat tally is Con: 303 Lab: 256 Lid Dem: 12 SNP: 34  Other 21 . This is a significant under performance for Theresa May and has the potential to create more problems than it solves. As such, itm ay well be that the party decides that she now has to go. With that in mind the former London mayor is currently rapidly shortening in price to be the next leader.

So I hear you ask, what were the betting odds for Boris becoming prime minister following the election, when this brave follow bet a cool two grand on it. Wait for it........... 100 - 1 . Possibly he'll now try to lay off some of the bet to make sure he gets a clunk of well deserve cash based on his foresight. It was a shrewd bet considering that a hung parliament wasn't 'entirely' out of the question, and the fact that Boris Johnson was widely expected to run for the Tory leadership last year following David Cameron stepping down. This political betting certainly lark seems to work out okay for some, and I'm glad someone is benefiting from our current crazy political lurches this was and that. Uncertain times ahead.