It always helps to have answers to questions where betting is concerned. In the long run, having discipline and a deliberate approach goes a long way. You see it in horse racing, you see it
in casino skills games like poker, everywhere really. A calm head and balanced approach to betting, as opposed to getting caught up in the highs and lows, brings success your way.
There is of course the flip side to that though, the wild card. The 'what are the odds of that
happening' events that always turn up from time to time. Regardless of what you know in life, it definitely helps to have a bit of luck on your side.
This is perhaps best illustrated with the likes of
Frankie Dettori's legendary Magnificent Seven win, where Dettori won in every single race on
the September 1996 race card. A feat that had mind boggling cumulative
odds of 25,051-1. It could be said that what's really surprising about this
event above all else though, is the loyal little group of punters that decided to bet on all seven
of his rides that day, despite it looking distinctly unlikely that he'd actually perform a clean sweep. It would've surely seemed like a foolhardy endeavour prior
to the races, but despite that some were laughing all the way to the bank. On
course Bookmaker Gary Wiltshire alone lost over a million of a day. Mary and
John Bolton, up from Somerset to celebrate their wedding anniversary, pocketed
£500,000 from their Ladbrokes bet (The max payout, they were actually due
£900,000!). Big bucks; I'm typically happy with the best casino bonuses! Some were not so lucky, betting on the selections individually. The difference between daring to dream and playing it safe.
So there can be an element of 'you've got to be in it to win it' even if the odds look almost insurmountable. This can often be true of extreme
Outsiders in racing, especially with the 125-1 or 200-1 odds that are not
especially uncommon on the exchanges. Even if you feel the odds are up against
you, consider how few you actually need to come through for you to make it the right bet
to make. The value bet to make. And this is where there is an element of skill involved, so why not go
with it, especially when you see that even with pure luck examples of good fortune, some
are now sitting pretty. The odds of lottery and scratch cards wins for instance
can be significant, but for those who actually raked in winnings due to a big win
for a tiny outlay it's entirely academic. We're talking significant life changing sums of money here. Of course again this is where it's solely luck at play, but it's useful to put odds in perspective, and what you can miss out of if you hold back even when you do have knowledge and insight on your side.
It can be hard to see the big picture
sometimes, and often people read 100-1 or 200-1 and see 'impossible', which in part frequently
explains the drift on the exchanges due to the 'it'll never happen' crew. Well,
quite often it does happen, and if you're considered in your approach and also have
that little sprinkle of luck that we all need in life, the odds may very well
be on your side.
Tuesday, 26 February 2019
Saturday, 16 February 2019
Saturday, 9 February 2019
Grand National Winners with the Longest Odds
It's still very much early days but current Grand National front runners for the 2019 race include Tiger Roll and Vintage Clouds. For those looking for a bit more bang for their buck, outsider options extend to several selections of 100-1 + such as Jarob, Morney Wing and Lieutenant Colonel (the latter of which is available at 200-1). We'll be taking a closer look at the betting as the race approaches.
Of course having a huge priced winner at the Grand National is one of those 'tell the grandchildren' moments that we'd all love to have. I've taken a look through the archives to find the biggest odds winners since the very beginning of The Grand National in 1836. Here they all are:
Date Winner Age Odds (SP)
1866 Salamander 7 40/1
1888 Playfair 7 40/1
1896 The Soarer 7 40/1
1908 Rubio 10 66/1
1928 Tipperary Tim 10 100/1
1929 Gregalach 7 100/1
1932 Forbra 7 50/1
1938 Battleship 11 40/1
1947 Caughoo 8 100/1
1948 Sheila's Cottage 9 50/1
1949 Russian Hero 9 66/1
1951 Nickel Coin 9 40/1
1963 Ayala 9 66/1
1966 Anglo 8 50/1
1967 Foinavon 9 100/1
1980 Ben Nevis 12 40/1
1985 Last Suspect 11 50/1
1995 Royal Athlete 12 40/1
2009 Mon Mome 9 100/1
2013 Auroras Encore 11 66/1
The above accounts for all 40-1 and above Grand National winners in the race's history, so true outsider winners are rather 'few and far between' in the big picture, but with the 1940's and 1960's being real hotspots for outsider wins. At six years since the last 40-1+ winner some would argue that we're 'due one', so it might be worth a punt on a longshot if you spot something specific that you like about it. It's worth adding that these are all SP odds too, so often they may have been bigger and/or will certainly have been on betting exchanges since the advent of those.
Of note is that the bigger priced winners over more recent decades are typically older, and so that might be something that could factor into your thinking and decision making too. Winning times have been fairly consistent over recent years,. That might shock some since there are so many vairables at play and hurdles are a challenge to traverse at the best of times, especially when horses start to tire over the arduous 4 miles 514 yards distance . If you have your eye on an outsider for the Grand National already, which one and why?
Sunday, 3 February 2019
The Biggest Priced Grand National Winners
It's still very much early days but early front runners for the 2019 Grand National include Tiger Roll and Vintage Clouds. For those looking for a bit more bang for their buck, outsider options include several selections of 100-1 + such as Jarob, Morney Wing and Lieutenant Colonel (the latter of which is available at 200-1). We'll be taking a closer look at the betting as the race approaches.
Of course getting a huge priced winner at the Grand National is one of those 'tell the grandchildren' moments that we'd all love to be part of. I've taken a look through the archives to find the biggest odds winners since the very beginning of The Grand National in 1836:
Date Winner Age Odds (SP)
1866 Salamander 7 40/1
1888 Playfair 7 40/1
1896 The Soarer 7 40/1
1908 Rubio 10 66/1
1928 Tipperary Tim 10 100/1
1929 Gregalach 7 100/1
1932 Forbra 7 50/1
1938 Battleship 11 40/1
1947 Caughoo 8 100/1
1948 Sheila's Cottage 9 50/1
1949 Russian Hero 9 66/1
1951 Nickel Coin 9 40/1
1963 Ayala 9 66/1
1966 Anglo 8 50/1
1967 Foinavon 9 100/1
1980 Ben Nevis 12 40/1
1985 Last Suspect 11 50/1
1995 Royal Athlete 12 40/1
2009 Mon Mome 9 100/1
2013 Auroras Encore 11 66/1
The above account for all 40-1 and above Grand National winners in the race's history, so big winners are rather 'few and far between' in the big picture, with the 1940's and 1960's being real hotspots for outsider wins. At six years since the last 40-1+ winner some would argue that we're 'due one', so it might be worth a punt on a longshot if you spot something specific that you like about it. It's worth adding that these are all SP odds too, so often they may have been bigger and/or will certainly have been on betting exchanges since the advent of those.
Of note is that the bigger priced winners over more recent decades are typically older, and so that might be something that could factor into your thinking and decision making too. Winning times have been fairly consistent over recent years, that may shock some since there are so many vairables at play and hurdles are a challenge to traverse at the best of times, especially when horses start to tire over the 4 miles 514 yards distance . If you have your eye on an outsider for the Grand National already, which one and why?
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