Betfred Mile Preview

The Betfred Mile (3:05 Goodwood, Friday) is a few days away but, with 66 entries at the 5-day declaration stage and 11/1 the field ante post, we couldn’t resist having an early look.

The first one that takes our eye is, naturally enough, topweight Farraaj (16/1), who has the steadier of 10st 0lb, but carries just a 3lb penalty for winning the John Smith’s Cup at York earlier this month. That was his second impressive handicap win in a row and, while a mile is arguably on the short side for him these days, the likely fast pace could bring his proven stamina into play in the closing stages.

At the same price, Heavy Metal (16/1) has returned to something like his best on his last two starts and is another who carries just a 3lb penalty for winning the International Stakes, over 7 furlongs, at Ascot last Saturday. He had a few of these behind on that occasion and, having won over a sharp mile at Brighton, he promises to be equally effective on this vastly different course. He is just one of seven entries for Middleham Moor trainer Mark Johnston, but if he does line up he must have a decent chance of completing a quick-fire double.

Heaven’s Guest (20/1) finished just 1½ lengths behind Heavy Metal at Ascot and reopposes on 2lb better terms. That, in itself, shouldn’t be quite enough for him to reverse the form, but the way he stayed on in the closing stages suggested stepping up to a mile could be exactly what he wants at this stage of his career. He’s only 2lb higher in the weights than when winning the Bunbury Cup on the July Course at Newmarket two weeks previously and is pretty much in the form of his life.

At much longer odds, St. Moritz (40/1) could only finish seventh, beaten 6 lengths, behind ante post favourite Velox at Sandown last time, but is 11lb better off and, if ridden with slightly more restraint, must have every chance of reversing the form on this much sharper track. Admittedly, he didn’t do his handicap mark much good when winning back-to-back handicaps in May and June, but wasn’t beaten far at Sandown off a 2lb lower mark on his penultimate start and appears to have been underestimated by the layers.

Last, but hopefully not least, I must confess to having a soft spot – possibly between my ears – for Excellent Guest (66/1). The Exceed And Excel gelding is clearly smart when on song, as he demonstrated when winning the Victoria Cup, over 7 furlongs, at Ascot on his reappearance last season off a 1lb higher mark. Unplaced runs in the Victoria Cup and Buckingham Palace Stakes so far this season don’t inspire much confidence, but outsiders is what we’re all about and he’s definitely one of those.

So, for our three against the field this week, we’re going for Farraaj, St. Moritz and Excellent Guest, in no particular order. Good luck!

Scottish Sprint Cup Preview

One outright favourite and one joint favourite has won the Scottish Sprint Cup at Musselburgh since 2004, but other winners in that period went off at 50/1, 28/1, 25/1, 20/1 and 16/1, so it’s a race that’s right up our street. This year’s renewal, due off at 3.35 p.m. on Saturday, June 14, has attracted 17 runners and, with all bar one of them priced up at 10/1 or longer odds ante post, we should be able to find a few that represent value.

It’s interesting to note that, despite the apparent absence of any draw bias over 5 furlongs at Musselburgh, especially on soft ground, seven of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 10 or higher. This fact hasn’t escaped the notice of the bookmakers and, predictably, the seven longest-priced horses in the ante post market are drawn in single-figure stalls.

Dinkum Diamond (20/1) has never won a handicap, although he was beaten just two necks in the Investec Specialist Bank “Dash” at Epsom, off a 10lb lower mark, last June. Despite a couple wins at Listed level, the Aussie Rules gelding has repeatedly failed to make the transition to Pattern company, but has his sights lowered again, so could go well at rewarding odds even under 9st 10lb. Musselburgh is arguably on the sharp side for him, but there’s unlikely to be any hanging about here and the faster they go the better for him.

Former Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp winner Tangerine Trees (16/1) is on a losing run of 10 and only 6lb better off for the 4 lengths he finished behind the ante post favourite Caspian Prince in this year’s Investec Specialist “Dash” at Epsom, so doesn’t exactly leap off the page as a readymade winner-in-waiting. However, he’s run well on both visits to Musselburgh, including a win in the Totepool Borderlescott Sprint Trophy over course and distance last March, so an improved performance would be no great surprise. He’s nicely drawn in stall 16, has winning form over 5 furlongs on good to soft and soft going and looks fairly weighted, off a handicap mark of 99, if anywhere near his best.

Former Stewards’ Cup winner Hawkeyethenoo (16/1) is another who hasn’t won for ages, but the last time he raced over 5 furlongs on soft going, at Doncaster last October, he was beaten just half a length off his current mark of 105. We’re reliably informed, by our friends at the BBC, that heavy rain is forecast for East Lothian on Thursday and Friday, so he could have ideal conditions by Saturday afternoon. Believe it or not, his course and distance win came as a three-year-old off a handicap mark of 54, so isn’t really significant, but he’s another who’s well-drawn in stall 15 and can prove a popular winner for East Renfrewshire trainer Jim Goldie.

With one eye on the sky, all our selections have winning form on soft going and they are, in order of preference:

Dinkum Diamond (20/1 with Betvictor)

Hawkeyethenoo (16/1 with Totesport, Betfred and Betvictor)

Tangerine Trees (16/1 generally)

Good luck!

Derby Preview

Australia has been ante post favourite for the Investec Derby (4.00 p.m. Epsom, Saturday, June 7) ever since he impressively won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Trial Turf Stakes, over a mile, at Leopardstown last September and was hailed by his trainer, Aidan O’Brien, as ‘the best horse we’ve ever had’. The Galileo colt confirmed his position at the head of the ante post market when finishing third, beaten half a length and a head, behind Night Of Thunder and Kingman in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas Stakes at Newmarket five weeks ago and co-owner Michael Tabor told At The Races last week that ‘people in Ballydoyle will be surprised if Australia doesn't win’.

However, Aidan O’Brien has expressed his concerns about the possibility of soft ground at Epsom on Derby Day and, with the going currently good to soft, good in places and an unsettled forecast for the week ahead, underfoot conditions may not be ideal for Australia. Furthermore, O’Brien also failed to categorically deny that another of his Derby entries, Geoffrey Chaucer, had comprehensively beaten Australia in a gallop at Ballydoyle so, for all his Classic credentials, Australia looks poor value at even money.

The good news, as far as we’re concerned is that the bookmakers bet 12/1 bar the O’Brien pair already mentioned, so there must be a decent chance of an upset. The longest priced winner of the Derby in the last ten years was Ruler Of The World at 7/1 last year, but looking further back, High Rise (20/1), Snow Knight (50/1) and Morston (25/1) all belied long odds, so a shock result is not entirely out of the question.

Although not strictly an outsider, insofar as he’s 12/1 third favourite in the ante post lists, Kingston Hill looks overpriced if the going at Epsom remains on the soft side. The son of champion first-season sire Mastercraftsman, out of a Rainbow Quest mare, has 4¼ lengths to find with Australia on their running in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas Stakes, but the way he kept on steadily at Newmarket, albeit with threatening the leaders, suggested that stepping up to a mile and a half would be in his favour. Indeed, he stayed on strongly when winning the Racing Post Trophy, over a mile, on soft going at Doncaster last October and, while a line through the runner-up Johann Strauss also gives him something to find with Australia, he looks to have bright prospects of reversing the Guineas form if conditions remain in his favour.

Sir Michael Stoute has won the Derby five times, most recently with Workforce in 2010, so Snow Hill (25/1) must be worth a second look. The Nayef colt has 2¼ lengths to find with impressive winner Western Hymn on their running over 1 mile 2 furlongs at Newbury in April, but improved to win the Betfred.com Derby Trial Stakes, over 1 mile 3½ furlongs, at Lingfield four weeks ago. Exactly what that form amount to is hard to tell, but it seems the further he goes the better he is so, with underfoot conditions sure to suit, whatever the weather, he looks a live outsider.

Whatever the result, The Investec Derby promises to be an umissable contest, but our two against the field, in no particular order, are:

Kingston Hill (12/1 with Bet365, Betvictor and Paddy Power)

Snow Hill (25/1 with Paddy Power and William Hill)

Good luck!

Silver Bowl Preview

Over half of the runners in the Betfred.com Silver Bowl Stakes (3.45) at Haydock on Saturday, May 24 are available at 14/1 or longer odds in the ante post lists, so it looks just the type of race in which we can find two or three that could go well at huge prices.

The first one that leaps off the page is Almargo, trained by Mark Johnston, who can be backed at ludicrously generous 40/1 with Betvictor and Coral. The son of Invincible Spirit completed a hat-trick on the Polytrack at Kempton, Lingfield and Wolverhampton earlier in the year and again ran well when fourth of twelve, beaten 5¾ lengths, behind Bilimbi at Musselburgh in April. He’s 12lb better off with the winner this time around and the return to faster underfoot conditions should suit him much better than the soft ground he’s encountered the last twice. He has a sprinting pedigree and weakened inside the final furlong at Musselburgh, so it’s possible that stamina is an issue, but at such long odds it’s a chance worth taking.

Another who appears generously priced in the ante post lists is Pupil, trained by Richard Hannon, who is available at 25/1 with Bet365 and Coral. The son of champion first-season sire Mastercraftsman has been quite highly tried since winning his maiden, over a mile, at Doncaster last September, but his subsequent third, beaten 1½ lengths, behind Pinzolo in a small conditions race at Newbury makes good reading in the context of this race. The winner is now officially rated 104, which suggests that Pupil is far from overburdened off a mark of 92 on his handicap debut. Stable jockey Richard Hughes has bigger fish to fry on the other side of the Irish Sea but, in his absence, Jim Crowley is a more than able deputy.

Mawfoor, trained by Brian Meehan, has also tried and failed at Group level, but there wasn’t much wrong with his reappearance at Ascot last month and, with plenty of stamina in the bottom half of his pedigree, promises to be even better over a mile. He could only keep on at one pace over 7 furlongs at Ascot, but is entitled to improve for the run, his first since last September and looks feasibly weighted. Hamdan Al Maktoum’s retained jockey, Paul Hanagan, understandably prefers Zarwaan, but that may not prevent Mawfoor from going well at the 25/1 generally available.

The Betfred.com Silver Bowl promises to be an exciting and informative contest and, because outsiders is what we’re all about, our three against the field are, in order of preference

Almargo 40/1 with Betvictor and Coral

Pupil 25/1 with Bet365 and Coral

Mawfoor 25/1 generally.

If those three fill the first three places, you may not be hearing from us for a while. Good luck!