Betfred Ebor Preview

The Betfred Ebor, run over 1 mile 6 furlongs at York, is the most valuable Flat handicap in Europe, worth £164,962 to the winner. Understandably, the race is always well subscribed and a total of 22 horses (including two reserves) stood their ground at the final declaration stage for this year’s renewal, due off at 3.50 p.m. on Saturday, August 23. Just one favourite has won the Ebor in the last ten years and, with winners at 14/1, 25/1 (three times) and 100/1 in that period, we’ve decided to cast an eye over a few of those available at generous odds in the ante post lists.

It’s interesting to note that David O’Meara’s stable jockey Daniel Tudhope, who presumably had the option of riding Repeater for his boss, opts for Luca Cumani’s lightly-raced four-year-old Sir Walter Scott instead. The Galileo colt, who was trained by Aidan O’Brien until June, has been restricted to three starts so far and has clearly had his problems. However, he was far from disgraced when sixth of ten, beaten 5½ lengths, in the Listed Doom Bar Stakes, over 1 mile 2 furlongs, at Newbury five weeks ago on his debut for Luca Cumani. Indeed, he looked in need of further on that occasion, as he had when second over 1 mile 4 furlongs at the Curragh last October. He doesn’t appear obviously well-handicapped off a mark of 100, but is the one truly ‘dark’ horse in the race and could be worth chancing at 25/1. Daniel Tudhope’s 3-7 (43%) strike rate for the yard is also quite encouraging.

Aussie Reigns has struggled at little off handicap marks of 100+ since winning a Listed race, over 1 mile 4 furlongs, on the all-weather at Kempton last November, but has run creditably on all five starts since returning from Dubai in March. Indeed, the way in which he’s been keeping on at the end of his races over 1 mile 2 furlongs and 1 mile 4 furlongs suggests that the step up to 1 mile 6 furlongs could be just what he needs at this stage of his career. If it is, he doesn’t look impossibly handicapped and could go very well at 40/1. West Sussex trainer William Knight is 0-11 at York over the last five seasons and jockey Richard Kingscote is 0-3 for the yard, so the statistics are hardly encouraging, but Aussie Reigns wouldn’t be the first less-than-obvious winner of the Ebor.

Last, but hopefully not least, Retirement Plan appeared to show significant improvement when stepped up to 2 miles from 1 mile 4 furlongs at Ascot two weeks ago and, if able to reproduce that level of form over two furlongs shorter, would be of major interest at 20/1. Lady Cecil’s four-year-old is another who carries just a 4lb penalty and, although he’s no better off for the 7½ lengths he finished behind Pallasator on his previous start at Ascot, staying could be the name of the game for the son of Monsun.

As ever, it’s a case of ‘you pay your money and you take your chance, but our three against the field, in order of preference, are:

Sir Walter Scott 25/1

Aussie Reigns 40/1

Retirement Plan 20/1

Betfred Mile Preview

The Betfred Mile (3:05 Goodwood, Friday) is a few days away but, with 66 entries at the 5-day declaration stage and 11/1 the field ante post, we couldn’t resist having an early look.

The first one that takes our eye is, naturally enough, topweight Farraaj (16/1), who has the steadier of 10st 0lb, but carries just a 3lb penalty for winning the John Smith’s Cup at York earlier this month. That was his second impressive handicap win in a row and, while a mile is arguably on the short side for him these days, the likely fast pace could bring his proven stamina into play in the closing stages.

At the same price, Heavy Metal (16/1) has returned to something like his best on his last two starts and is another who carries just a 3lb penalty for winning the International Stakes, over 7 furlongs, at Ascot last Saturday. He had a few of these behind on that occasion and, having won over a sharp mile at Brighton, he promises to be equally effective on this vastly different course. He is just one of seven entries for Middleham Moor trainer Mark Johnston, but if he does line up he must have a decent chance of completing a quick-fire double.

Heaven’s Guest (20/1) finished just 1½ lengths behind Heavy Metal at Ascot and reopposes on 2lb better terms. That, in itself, shouldn’t be quite enough for him to reverse the form, but the way he stayed on in the closing stages suggested stepping up to a mile could be exactly what he wants at this stage of his career. He’s only 2lb higher in the weights than when winning the Bunbury Cup on the July Course at Newmarket two weeks previously and is pretty much in the form of his life.

At much longer odds, St. Moritz (40/1) could only finish seventh, beaten 6 lengths, behind ante post favourite Velox at Sandown last time, but is 11lb better off and, if ridden with slightly more restraint, must have every chance of reversing the form on this much sharper track. Admittedly, he didn’t do his handicap mark much good when winning back-to-back handicaps in May and June, but wasn’t beaten far at Sandown off a 2lb lower mark on his penultimate start and appears to have been underestimated by the layers.

Last, but hopefully not least, I must confess to having a soft spot – possibly between my ears – for Excellent Guest (66/1). The Exceed And Excel gelding is clearly smart when on song, as he demonstrated when winning the Victoria Cup, over 7 furlongs, at Ascot on his reappearance last season off a 1lb higher mark. Unplaced runs in the Victoria Cup and Buckingham Palace Stakes so far this season don’t inspire much confidence, but outsiders is what we’re all about and he’s definitely one of those.

So, for our three against the field this week, we’re going for Farraaj, St. Moritz and Excellent Guest, in no particular order. Good luck!

Scottish Sprint Cup Preview

One outright favourite and one joint favourite has won the Scottish Sprint Cup at Musselburgh since 2004, but other winners in that period went off at 50/1, 28/1, 25/1, 20/1 and 16/1, so it’s a race that’s right up our street. This year’s renewal, due off at 3.35 p.m. on Saturday, June 14, has attracted 17 runners and, with all bar one of them priced up at 10/1 or longer odds ante post, we should be able to find a few that represent value.

It’s interesting to note that, despite the apparent absence of any draw bias over 5 furlongs at Musselburgh, especially on soft ground, seven of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 10 or higher. This fact hasn’t escaped the notice of the bookmakers and, predictably, the seven longest-priced horses in the ante post market are drawn in single-figure stalls.

Dinkum Diamond (20/1) has never won a handicap, although he was beaten just two necks in the Investec Specialist Bank “Dash” at Epsom, off a 10lb lower mark, last June. Despite a couple wins at Listed level, the Aussie Rules gelding has repeatedly failed to make the transition to Pattern company, but has his sights lowered again, so could go well at rewarding odds even under 9st 10lb. Musselburgh is arguably on the sharp side for him, but there’s unlikely to be any hanging about here and the faster they go the better for him.

Former Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp winner Tangerine Trees (16/1) is on a losing run of 10 and only 6lb better off for the 4 lengths he finished behind the ante post favourite Caspian Prince in this year’s Investec Specialist “Dash” at Epsom, so doesn’t exactly leap off the page as a readymade winner-in-waiting. However, he’s run well on both visits to Musselburgh, including a win in the Totepool Borderlescott Sprint Trophy over course and distance last March, so an improved performance would be no great surprise. He’s nicely drawn in stall 16, has winning form over 5 furlongs on good to soft and soft going and looks fairly weighted, off a handicap mark of 99, if anywhere near his best.

Former Stewards’ Cup winner Hawkeyethenoo (16/1) is another who hasn’t won for ages, but the last time he raced over 5 furlongs on soft going, at Doncaster last October, he was beaten just half a length off his current mark of 105. We’re reliably informed, by our friends at the BBC, that heavy rain is forecast for East Lothian on Thursday and Friday, so he could have ideal conditions by Saturday afternoon. Believe it or not, his course and distance win came as a three-year-old off a handicap mark of 54, so isn’t really significant, but he’s another who’s well-drawn in stall 15 and can prove a popular winner for East Renfrewshire trainer Jim Goldie.

With one eye on the sky, all our selections have winning form on soft going and they are, in order of preference:

Dinkum Diamond (20/1 with Betvictor)

Hawkeyethenoo (16/1 with Totesport, Betfred and Betvictor)

Tangerine Trees (16/1 generally)

Good luck!

Derby Preview

Australia has been ante post favourite for the Investec Derby (4.00 p.m. Epsom, Saturday, June 7) ever since he impressively won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Trial Turf Stakes, over a mile, at Leopardstown last September and was hailed by his trainer, Aidan O’Brien, as ‘the best horse we’ve ever had’. The Galileo colt confirmed his position at the head of the ante post market when finishing third, beaten half a length and a head, behind Night Of Thunder and Kingman in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas Stakes at Newmarket five weeks ago and co-owner Michael Tabor told At The Races last week that ‘people in Ballydoyle will be surprised if Australia doesn't win’.

However, Aidan O’Brien has expressed his concerns about the possibility of soft ground at Epsom on Derby Day and, with the going currently good to soft, good in places and an unsettled forecast for the week ahead, underfoot conditions may not be ideal for Australia. Furthermore, O’Brien also failed to categorically deny that another of his Derby entries, Geoffrey Chaucer, had comprehensively beaten Australia in a gallop at Ballydoyle so, for all his Classic credentials, Australia looks poor value at even money.

The good news, as far as we’re concerned is that the bookmakers bet 12/1 bar the O’Brien pair already mentioned, so there must be a decent chance of an upset. The longest priced winner of the Derby in the last ten years was Ruler Of The World at 7/1 last year, but looking further back, High Rise (20/1), Snow Knight (50/1) and Morston (25/1) all belied long odds, so a shock result is not entirely out of the question.

Although not strictly an outsider, insofar as he’s 12/1 third favourite in the ante post lists, Kingston Hill looks overpriced if the going at Epsom remains on the soft side. The son of champion first-season sire Mastercraftsman, out of a Rainbow Quest mare, has 4¼ lengths to find with Australia on their running in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas Stakes, but the way he kept on steadily at Newmarket, albeit with threatening the leaders, suggested that stepping up to a mile and a half would be in his favour. Indeed, he stayed on strongly when winning the Racing Post Trophy, over a mile, on soft going at Doncaster last October and, while a line through the runner-up Johann Strauss also gives him something to find with Australia, he looks to have bright prospects of reversing the Guineas form if conditions remain in his favour.

Sir Michael Stoute has won the Derby five times, most recently with Workforce in 2010, so Snow Hill (25/1) must be worth a second look. The Nayef colt has 2¼ lengths to find with impressive winner Western Hymn on their running over 1 mile 2 furlongs at Newbury in April, but improved to win the Betfred.com Derby Trial Stakes, over 1 mile 3½ furlongs, at Lingfield four weeks ago. Exactly what that form amount to is hard to tell, but it seems the further he goes the better he is so, with underfoot conditions sure to suit, whatever the weather, he looks a live outsider.

Whatever the result, The Investec Derby promises to be an umissable contest, but our two against the field, in no particular order, are:

Kingston Hill (12/1 with Bet365, Betvictor and Paddy Power)

Snow Hill (25/1 with Paddy Power and William Hill)

Good luck!