Hennessy Gold Cup Preview

The Hennessy Gold Cup hasn’t had a habit of throwing up long-priced winners in recent years, but Madison Du Berlais (25/1) in 2008 and Triolo D’Alene (20/1) last year provide cause for optimism, as far as this column is concerned. Of course, the Hennessy Gold Cup is always competitive and particularly so this year, so we’ve had a look at a few further down the betting that could belie their generous odds.

Ballynagour (25/1) didn’t help his handicap mark when hacking up in the Byrne Group Plate, over 2 miles 4 furlongs, at the Cheltenham Festival, but has run creditably in defeat on both subsequent starts in Grade 1 company. A line through his Punchestown conqueror, Sizing Europe, gives him the beating of Rocky Creek – a top-priced 10/1 at the time of writing – so, if he arrives fit and well for his first start since April, he’s clearly no forlorn hope. He’s done most of his winning with plenty of cut in the ground and, having won a point-to-point over 3 miles earlier in his career, shouldn’t fail through lack of stamina.

A similar comment applies to Houblon Des Obeaux (33/1) who, twelve months or so ago, was beating subsequent Hennessy Gold Cup winner Triolo D’Alene (gave 3lb) by 9 lengths in the United House Gold Cup, over 3 miles, at Ascot. He could finish only sixth, beaten 21 lengths, behind the same horse in the Hennessy itself but, having won on soft and heavy going, should be much better suited by underfoot conditions this time around. He contested the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Betfred Bowl at Aintree, albeit without distinction, last season and should find this much easier. His jumping can leave something to be desired, on occasion, but that’s factored into his price and, as a tough, out-and-out stayer, he looks decent value.

At the other end of the weights, Via Sundown (33/1) has won three of his four starts over fences and won convincing on his reappearance, over 2 miles 5½ furlongs on heavy going, over hurdles at Exeter earlier this month. His previous defeat of Benvolio at Fontwell in February looks better in light of that one’s fifth to the subsequently disqualified The Young Master in the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton three weeks ago and he, too, has winning form over 3 miles on soft and heavy going. Three six-year-olds have won the Hennessy Gold Cup in the last ten years, so the statistics aren’t entirely against him and he’s a progressive type lurking on a relatively low weight.

As usual, the Hennessy Gold Cup promises to be a fascinating and informative contest. For what they’re worth, our three against the field this week are, in order of preference, Ballynagour (25/1 with Sky Bet and Sporting Bet), Houblon Des Obeaux (33/1 generally) and Via Sundown (33/1 generally). Win or lose, enjoy what is often considered the sternest test of jumping ability outside the Grand National, and good luck!

Paddy Power Gold Cup Preview

Traditionally, the market has proved a tremendous guide to the outcome of the Paddy Power Gold Cup, with the winner typically a well-fancied, progressive young chaser from a southern stable. However, history is in the past, as they say, so we’ve decided to look beyond the first four in the market for two or three we think could go well at decent odds.

If only for pure devilment, we always like to have a look at the complete outsider of the field and, this week, it’s actually possible to make a case for Orpheus Valley (66/1). Horse racing statisticians will tell you, quite rightly, that horses aged 10 years or older and horses trained in Ireland have a very poor record in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Consequently, Orpheus Valley, an 11-year-old trained by Thomas Gibney in Co. Meath, is apparently on a hiding to nothing, but his win over 2 miles 5 furlongs at Punchestown in April was an excellent effort and, even off a 9lb higher mark, may be capable of making his presence felt, especially if allowed a soft lead. He jumps well and acts on heavy going so, if the forecast heavy rain gets into the ground, he can lead the field a merry dance.

Cedre Bleu (40/1), now in the care of Charlie Mann, went off the boil after finishing second, beaten 4½ lengths, behind Double Ross over 2 miles 5 furlongs on the New Course at Cheltenham last January, but isn’t impossibly handicapped on his best form. In fact, he can race off the same handicap mark as when second, beaten 1¼ lengths, behind Anquetta at Market Rasen last May on his final start for Paul Nicholls and should strip fitter for his reappearance in a decent race at Wetherby two weeks ago. He hardly leaps off the page as a readymade winner-in-waiting, but he wouldn’t be the first horse to improve for a change of scenery and he has a squeak, especially if the going deteriorates.

Another horse discarded by Paul Nicholls between last season and this, Edgardo Sol (25/1), was restricted to hurdles after jumping poorly on his seasonal debut over fences at Aintree last October. However, the son of useful jumps sire Kapgarde made a fair, if unspectacular, debut over fences for Emma Lavelle on the same course three weeks ago and may be capable of building on that effort. A French import, he first ran over fences as a four-year-old, but he’s still only seven, so it’s too soon to be writing him off just yet.

The Paddy Power Gold Cup is, as ever, hugely competitive, with plenty of activity at the head of the market. However, that’s not what we’re about, so our three against the field this week are, in order of preference, Edgardo Sol (25/1 generally), Cedre Bleu (40/1 with Sky Bet, Betvictor and Stan James) and Orpheus Valley (66/1 with Bet365, Sky Bet and Betvictor). Win or lose, enjoy the race and good luck!

Old Roan Chase Preview

The final Group 1 race of the season, the Racing Post Trophy, takes place at Doncaster on Saturday but, given the high percentage of winning favourites in recent years, we’ve decided to look a little further afield for this week’s selections. Over at Aintree, the Betfred Monet’s Garden Old Roan Chase features a dozen runners, only two of whom have run recently, so it’s the sort of race that could throw up a surprise winner.

Viva Colonia (33/1) is 4lb out of the handicap proper but, even so, is still only 4lb higher in the weights than when third, beaten 2½ lengths, in this race last year. That form entitles him, once again, to beat the fourth, Mr Moonshine, the sixth, Wishfull Thinking, and the seventh, Edgardo Sol and he should be fairly straight, having had a spin on the Flat at Newcastle earlier this month. He hasn’t won for a while and a drop of rain probably wouldn’t hurt his chance, but that’s all factored into his price and his chance is, perhaps, not quite as forlorn as the bookmakers would have you believe.

Fellow ‘rag’ Lucky William (25/1) was a Grade 1 winner over fences at Punchestown at the end of the 2011/12 season, but wasn’t seen again until finishing last of eight, beaten 65 lengths, behind Simenon, over hurdles at Tipperary in July. Thomas Cooper’s 10-year-old got no further than the third fence when sent back over the larger obstacles in the Grade 2 PWC Champion Chase at Punchestown three weeks ago, but it’s interesting that connections are persevering with him and he’s a rare runner on this side of the Irish Sea for the Co. Kerry trainer.

Bold Sir Brian (20/1) was mooted as a possible Cheltenham Gold Cup contender after winning the Sportingbet Future Stars Chase at Sandown during the 2012/13 season, but his form tailed off afterwards and he returns from an absence of 554 days. He’s clearly had his problems, but he’s dropped 6lb in the weights and it’s worth remembering that subsequent Hennessy Gold Cup winner Triolo D’Alene (rec. 2lb) could finish only third, beaten 19 lengths, at Sandown. Obviously, the case for him is by no means watertight, but he’s won after a break several times in the past and it’s probably too soon to be writing him off just yet.

The Old Roan Chase promises, as usual, to be a fascinating and informative contest, but our three against the field this week are, in no particular order, Viva Colonia (33/1 generally available), Lucky William (25/1 generally available) and Bold Sir Brian (a standout 20/1 with Paddy Power. If those three happen to fill the first places, it might be a little while until you hear from us again! Good luck!!

Balmoral Handicap Preview

QIPCO British Champions Day at Ascot is typically more about quality than quantity. However, the last race on Saturday’s card, the Balmoral Handicap, has a maximum field size of 30 and provides us with another opportunity to unearth, or at least try to unearth, a long-priced winner.

Hawkeyethenoo (33/1) won over 1 mile 100 yards at Beverley as a three-year-old, when in the care of Michael Easterby, but has not been tried over further than 7 furlongs in the five years since his transfer to Jim Goldie. However, the eight-year-old has suggested on recent starts – particularly his penultimate start, over 7 furlongs, at Ascot – that a step up in distance could be what he needs at this stage of his career. He’s only won once with ‘soft’ in the going description, but has run well enough on soft going to suggest that testing underfoot conditions at the Berkshire track won’t hinder his chance. From a handicapping perspective, he’s 4lb lower in the weights than when edging out Imperial Guest in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood two seasons ago, so a belated return to the winners’ enclosure at Ascot may not be entirely out of the question.

Farlow (50/1) is by the top-class Australian sprinter Exceed And Excel, but nevertheless has some decent form over a mile, including on soft going, and may have been underestimated by the bookmakers. Richard Fahey’s six-year-old is just 1lb higher in the weights than when finishing fourth, beaten 3½ lengths, behind Brae Hill in the William Hill Spring Mile at Doncaster in March and ran his best race for a while when third, over 7 furlongs, at Ayr nine days ago. He’s the least fancied of three entries from Richard Fahey’s Musley Bank yard but, thankfully, he doesn’t know that and he could go well at extravagant odds.

German import Empire Storm (33/1) ran his best race since joining Michael Attwater when second in the Totepool Challenge Cup, over 7 furlongs, at Ascot two weeks ago and is another who looks overpriced in the ante post market. His third, beaten 2¼ lengths, behind Custom Cut in a Listed race, over 1 mile 67, at Windsor in July makes good reading in light of the subsequent exploits of David O’Meara’s gelding and, although 2lb higher in the weights this time, looks far from impossibly handicapped. A testing mile on heavy or soft going should play to his strengths and, although he hasn’t won for over two years, it’s surprising that he’s such a big price.

Anyway, for richer for poorer, our three against the field this week are, in no particular order, Hawkeyethenoo (33/1 generally available), Farlow (50/1 with Coral) and Empire Storm (33/1 generally available). Of course, if you’re in search of even bigger prices, it may be worth having a dabble on Betfair, or the Tote, on Saturday. Good luck!