2:20 Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes, Saturday 29th August

The pronounced bias towards horses drawn low, on the inside, over 5 furlongs at Beverley is well known to punters and bookmakers alike and invariably influences the betting on the Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes.

In fact, the eleven winners of the race so far were drawn 1, 2, 1, 9, 2, 4, 1, 9, 8, 7 and 6 so, while it seems obvious that we should concentrate on horses drawn in single figures, we may struggle to find selections that are anything but realistically priced.

Confessional (50/1) finished third, beaten 1½ lengths, in this race three seasons ago from stall 12, but it’s testament to his deterioration in the interim that he was rated 106 on that occasion and is rated just 84 today. A career record of five wins from 82 starts, none of which have come at Listed level, probably tells you all you need to know about Tim Easterby’s eight-year-old and he surely has too much to find, even from the plum draw in

stall 1.

Similar comments apply to Tangerine Trees (25/1), who won this race and the Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp as a six-year-old, but has officially deteriorated by 17lb since those halcyon days and is hard to fancy. He did manage to beat fellow veteran Borderlescott, on advantageous terms, in a small conditions race at Ayr in April, but his more recent form is less inspiring.

Of the others drawn in single figures, Line Of Reason (6/1), Maarek (5/1), Alben Star (6/1) and Dikta Del Mar (10/1) don’t fall into the ‘outsider’ category so, we’re left with Holley Shiftwell (14/1), Red Pike (12/1) and Cordial (25/1).

All three of them have work to do to beat the principals on official ratings but, while he’s raced just once (without success) over 5 furlongs, Red Pike has a decent strike rate for a sprinter and has plenty of winning form over 6 furlongs on the prevailing good going. He’ll probably need a career-best effort to win but, in a race where the market leaders look far from ‘bomb-proof’, he’s our tentative selection.

Selection: Beverley 2.20 Red Pike (12/1 generally available) to win

8.45 Wolverhampton, Thursday, August 27

In the Compare Odds @ Bookies.com Handicap (8.45) at Wolverhampton on Thursday evening, Zed Candy Girl has won twice over course and distance and is just 2lb higher in the weights than on the second occasion, in June, so has an obvious chance from a handicapping point-of-view. The Sakhee’s Secret mare failed to make much of an impact on two subsequent starts in 0-70 and 0-75 company, at Chepstow and over course and distance, but ran a little better when fifth of eleven, beaten 4¾ lengths, in 0-65 company at Lingfield last time.

Back over 7 furlongs, on Tapeta rather than Polytrack, Daniel Mark Loughrane’s five-year-old looks worth chancing, particularly at the standout 20/1 available from Stan James in the early price lists. Winning jockey George Baker, who’s 1-2 on her, once again takes off a useful 3lb, so there appears no reason why she shouldn’t go well at a decent price.

Selection: Wolverhampton 8.45 Zed Candy Girl (20/1 with Stan James) to win

If you're looking for further selections why not check out this week's deadly double on our new multiples.co.uk blog.

Outsider Update

Here's hoping that you all got on the our Outsider suggestions for the Ebor with winner Litigant suggested at a massive 40-1 (33-1 SP) and Suegioo at 33-1 (40-1 SP) coming in 3rd. Two out of three ain't bad!!  Keep an eye out for our next update!

Result:
1st     20 Litigant                33/1
2nd    15 Wicklow Brave     9/1
3rd     10 Suegioo               40/1

Are you a pro at picking Outsiders? If you love a long shot and want to tell Outsider readers why they should back your selections get in touch.

Ebor, 3:45 York, Saturday, August 22

The Betfred Ebor, run over 1 mile 6 furlongs at York, is the most valuable Flat handicap in Europe, with £275,000 in guaranteed prize money, and is invariably fiercely competitive. As usual, a maximum field of twenty runners is set to face the starter on Saturday and, with winners at 100/1, 25/1 (three times), 20/1, 14/1, and 12/1 in the last ten years, our search for a generously priced winner may not be entirely in vain.

Berkshire trainer Joseph Tuite could surely have found Litigant (40/1) an easier opportunity on his debut for the yard, after 491 days off, and the 7-year-old is an interesting contender on that score alone. The Sinndar gelding won a couple of races on turf for Andre Fabre in France as a 3-year-old and three more on the all-weather for Seamus Durack as a 5- and 6-year-old before joining his current yard in May.

He’s 9lb higher than when last winning a handicap, at Wolverhampton two seasons ago, but won by 3½ lengths, eased down, on that occasion, so may not be impossibly handicapped if fit and ready to do himself justice. Of course, the lengthy lay-off is a cause for concern and his ability to act on rain-softened ground is an unknown, but he’s run well after similar breaks in the past and could, conceivably, be open to improvement after just seven career starts.

Last year’s Chester Cup winner, Suegioo (33/1), probably needs further than 1 mile 6 furlongs and/or testing conditions and/or an end-to-end gallop to bring his abundant stamina into play, but was beaten far in the John Smith’s Northumberland Plate or the Coral Marathon on his two most recent starts and may not be a totally forlorn hope. The Manduro gelding has looked a difficult ride on more than occasion but, if first-time blinkers have the desired effect, he may be capable of springing a surprise.

Watersmeet (25/1) has yet to win beyond 1 mile 4 furlongs, but showed no signs of stopping when just touched off by stable companion Notarised in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock two starts ago. That performance proved his effectiveness on rain-softened ground and he was far from disgraced when stepped up to Group 3 level at Goodwood last time. His overall profile is highly progressive, yet the bookmakers appear, almost, to have written off his chances.

Watersmeet (25/1 generally available) has to be our first pick this week, followed by Litigant (40/1 generally available) and Suegioo (33/1 generally available). Good luck!