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Sunday, 21 May 2017

6:25 Windsor (22nd May)

British Stallions EBF FILLIES' Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race)

A Fillies' Novice Stakes over 6f 12y on good to soft ground. Decent price money on offer sees eight two-year-olds take part.

Charlie Appleby has been the king of debut winners this season such is the force of Godolphin. Dathanna is made favourite (15/8) in the tissue prices but it will be interesting to see if she is opposed to what could be a respectable form horse. 

Dathanna is a daughter of Dubawi is likely to have the ability but needs to bit ready against more experienced rivals. 

Cardaw Lily hails from Richard Hughes who I have been quite critical of as a trainer. He often fails miserably with fancied horses although this daughter of Lawman ran well on debut at Ascot a race that is likely to yield many winners. Certainly the first three look capable of a higher class.This £35,000 yearling purchase was sent off 33-1. She was slow away but ran on well in the closing stages without being hard pressed. With that experience under her belt, you have to feel a big race.

Angel Of The South was behind. Dean Ivory's daughter of Dark Angel was fancied to go well on debut at this course and finished second to Rock Of Estonia. Considering she cost £170,000 at the yearling sales it is fair to imagine connections expected a bold show at Ascot. She didn't run well at all. However, it was a competitive race so you have to be careful because it may have been her running. She led that day with Mrs Gallagher and thought she went a stride too fast for her ability. The betting kind of suggests the bookmakers think the same. It will be interesting to see how both Cardaw Law and Angel Of The South go over this extra furlong. I would prefer the former but it will be intriguing.

Richard Hannon's Elysium Dream is another filly who ran in a hot maiden on debut won impressively by One Minute. This daughter of Champs Elysees looked clueless that day when 20/1. The leaders set a frantic pace but even so she was toiling behind like she had no hope of even being competitive. However, she plugged on and was chasing down the second and third with some aggression in the closing furlong. There is little doubt the placed horses had run out of energy so you have to be slightly cautious and wonder if Elysium Dream was flattered. This extra yardage will help but she wouldn't want to be slow into stride on this dog leg. 

Andrew Balding does well at this course so Angel Islington may go ok. Priced at 11/1 currently, it's certainly worth a look.

Similarly, Clive Cox can go win with debutantes. Windsor used to be a significant course for this trainer in the good old days so it is interesting to see Little Miss Lilly (also 11/1). 

Conclusion: Dathanna will have her supporters. Debutantes for this stable have done nothing wrong this season so that is a positive and six furlongs is easier for making ground if a touch slow into stride. I would take a watching brief. Cardaw Lily should go well and appreciate this extra furlong. She will improve from a nice introduction at Ascot. On that form, she should beat Angel Of The South but it is a matter of debate whether she ran her race that day. It was a strange run and I wouldn't give up hope on Ivory's horse just yet. However, I would need a double-figure price to take an interest. Not sure what to think about Elysium Dream. She could be a class act but needs to be much livelier this time round. The extra furlong should be a huge positive and that experience could have blown the cobwebs away. Angel Islington and Little Miss Lilly have claims and would be my picks here!

Monday, 1 May 2017

The Quest For a Big Win

A cousin of mine takes part in a monthly horse racing tips competition alongside a few others run by my brother. It's just a bit of fun, is free and has a small cash prize each month so keeps people interested. This Saturday he somehow managed to get a 40-1 shot up (Henllan Harri at Sandown in the 3:35 Gold Cup Handicap Chase), and that was just the odds with the bookies, so it was possibly 100-1 + with Betfair. It's not every day of the week you get a winner at those odds, and of course I'm sure he's kicking himself for not having a bet on it.

Even though I'm definitely one to look for a big priced outsider win (hadn't you guessed from the URL of the blog!), I do often find myself more likely to pick out a few selections at around the 20-1 mark or thereabouts because you do need at least the semi occasional win to keep the momentum going motivation wise. For either myself, or those who keep up to speed with my bets, if I was always fixating on the 'rare as hen's teeth' odds range, I'd likely have an awful lot of lean spells.

That said, sometimes there are horses that, huge priced as they are, you can't help but at least think they have half a hope (and of course taking 'price to chance' into account, that's all you need at crazy odds). Those are the wins you remember, the real stand outs over the span of your betting life.

Of course many big wins in racing, aren't single bet outsiders as such, but instead accumulator bets with huge combined odds with at best an outside chance of winning. Not to say that they don't happen though. Case in point on Friday afternoon (28th April) one lucky Coral punter received the biggest payout in their history with his five horse accumulator, placing a paltry £19 on five Punchestown, Ireland bets and walking away with a mind boggling £823,000 - a fact he didn't even recieve until checking his account on the early hours of Saturday after a night out. A night to remember! The Vegas slots 'casino level win' of bets, something to muse over while you're playing high RTP Slots.

One of his selections (Canardier) was an outsider in its own right at 33-1, so was a brave selection to even include in an accumulator to be honest. His other selections were 10/1 Das Mooser (3.40 Punchestown), 9/2 Woodland Opera (4.20 Punchestown), 7/1 Definite Ruby (4.55 Punchestown), 10/1 Bacardys (6.05 Punchestown) and the bet consisted of 5 £3 4 fourfold accumulators and one £4 fivefold.

What's the biggest priced horse that's romped home for you (or biggest combined odds of your biggest winning acca)?

Friday, 21 April 2017

6:00 Nottingham (22nd April) - Novice Stakes

A Novice Stakes for two-year-olds over 5f 13y on good to firm going. Eight juveniles take part all debutantes bar one horse with race experience. 

Poignant is a son of Sepoy and trained by Archie Watson who has been a power of strength since starting his training career. This chestnut colt is a homebred for present owner Al Asayl Bloodstock Ltd. He made his debut just over two weeks ago when making his debut at Leicester finishing seventh behind easy winner Kick On Kick On trained by Clive Cox. It was a fair effort if nothing out of the ordinary. The starting odds of 16-1 suggested that he may have been in need of run and better could be expected on these next few starts. 

John Gallagher doesn't have many two-year-olds in training and very few winning on debut.To be fair, he does have a few debutantes that go close and if memory serves one prevailed last year at Goodwood. Green Power is likely to be a big price here. This March foal is a son of Kheleyf and £7,000 yearling purchase by the trainer. Best watched. 

The last few years have seen the fortunes of Mich Channon's stable suffer. From a powerhouse training talented two-year-olds his string is now a shadow of what used to be and consequently, the victories are harder to find. Neola is one of two fillies in the field. This daughter of Foxwedge. The dam, Effie B, used to be trained by Channon and a fair juvenile winning over £40,000 in total prize money. The betting is the best guide to this fillies' chances. If priced bigger than 8-1 I would definitely take a watching brief. If priced in the best betting guide has some chance although the stable are struggling to hit the headlines.

Another small trainer is John Holt. Mocead Cappall. This daughter of Captain Gerrard is out of a dam readers may recall All Fur Coat.She finished second on debut but managed one victory. Mocead Cappall was purchased by the trainer at the yearling sales for £9,500. Will be a big price but a surprise if good enough today. 

One trainer and owner combination that ticks a lot of boxes is John Fretwell and David Brown. Both talents when it comes to spotting talented two-year-olds they have done well with some very precocious types over the years. Snaffled is a bay colt, sired by Camacho , purchased by Fretwell for 57,000G at the yearling sales. One of the more fancied runner from a stable who can ready a debutante. Definitely, on the shortlist especially if priced 13/2 & less SP. 

Richard Fahey has been in flying form this season with his juveniles and one of few trainers who can get them fitter than a butcher's dog. A number of winners have been seen on debut and Simmy's Copshop is likely to start favourite. This chestnut son of Bahamian Bounty is in the ownership of Middleham Park Racing. He cost 45,000E at the yearling sales. A trainer who knows how to win and his juveniles have been in form. 

Karl Burk has been a bit hit and miss with his juveniles this season although we sent out a huge 66-1 winning two-year-old at Ripon on Thursday. Havana Grey will be more fancied and could well be a big player. This son of Havana Gold cost 70,000E at the yearling sales, the price increasing markedly from a foal. Should fit the frame. 

The first two-year-old runner of the season fro Michael Bell. Interesting to see him with an early juvenile as it is often an indicator they fancy them to have a level of ability. Choice Encounter is a son of Choisir and bought in by the vendor for 65,000. Louis Steward takes off a valuable 3lb. Another horse who should be in the first three. 

Conclusion: We endevour to bring you the best horse racing tips. In general, we're all about big priced outsiders but I don't get a feeling a big priced winner will shine here. Quite interested in Choice Encounter who looks a decent each-way bet at odds of 11-2.