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Wednesday 22 March 2017

Dubai World Cup, Saturday, March 26

Triple Grade 1 winner Arrogate is officially rated 16lb superior to his nearest rivals in the Dubai World Cup (4.45) at Meydan on Saturday and correspondingly long odds on (4/11) to extend his winning sequence. However, as demonstrated by the defeat of 2/9 favourite Douvan in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the recent Cheltenham Festival, horses are not machines, so there may be some value in opposing Bob Baffert’s 4-year-old.

The son of Unbridled’s Song has yet to race outside North America and, although Baffert apparently has no qualms about the Meydan surface and is happy with the condition of his charge, there can be no guarantees that the long journey from California hasn’t taken its toll.

Move Up (66/1) made decent progress on turf last season, progressing from handicaps to win twice in Group company over 1 mile 4 furlongs. The Dubawi colt ran well on his first attempt on dirt, and in Grade 1 company, when fourth of 8, beaten 3¼ lengths, behind Long River in the Al Maktoum Challenge R3 over course and distance three weeks ago. Saeed bin Suroor’s 4-year-old is entitled to improve for that run, his first since October, and may be capable of reversing the form with the winner and the second, Special Fighter, despite reopposing on identical terms.

In fact, Arrogate aside, Move Up has very little to find with anything else in the field, so the 25/1 available with Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook without the favourite looks cracking value.

Selection: Move Up w/o Arrogate (25/1 with Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook)


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