Powered by Blogger.

Thursday, 24 May 2018

How to Bet on Horses: The Dos & Don'ts of Profitable Punting

By virtue of the fact that you’re reading this article , it’s probably safe to assume that you know how to bet on horses, in terms of physically placing a bet. If you don’t, your options essentially boil down to placing a bet in person, on the racecourse or in a licensed betting shop, or remotely, via the Internet or the telephone.
However, this article should really be titled ‘How to Bet Profitably on Horses’, because what we hope to do in the paragraphs that follow is to distill our ideas about successful betting, some of which we’ve discussed at length in other articles, into a succinct list of dos and don’ts.
Do proof your selections on paper only for at least a month, and preferably two or three, before you start backing or laying them with your own money. If you’re going to rely on a tipping service for your selections, make sure that you can obtain results for that service, independently proofed by a third party, for a similar period.
Do establish a betting bank or, in other words, set aside an adequate amount of money, exclusively for betting on horses, before you start placing bets. The purpose of doing so is that, if you do experience a sequence of adverse results, your standard of living isn’t affected in any way.
The amount of money you need to set aside will depend on your strike rate which, in turn, depends on the range of odds in which your selections lie.
Once you know your strike rate, you can calculate the longest losing run from the formula log (NB) /-(log(1 - SR)), where NB represents the number of bets you intend to place and SR represents your strike rate, expressed as a decimal fraction. So, if you have a (not unrealistic) strike rate of 25%, for every 1,000 bets you place, you can expect a longest losing run

= log(1000)/-log(1-0.25)
= log(1000)/-(log(0.75))
= 3/-(-0.125)
= 3/0.125
= 24

Of course, it’s always possible that you could encounter two such losing runs in succession, one at the end of your first thousand bets and another at start of your second thousand, so if you operate at one point level stakes, you need a betting bank of 48 points to protect you from such an eventuality.
Do keep a record of every bet you place, win or lose, in a business-like way. Doing so will not only instill discipline in you, so that you’re less likely to involve yourself in races that you know you shouldn’t, but also provide you with documentary evidence of your betting habits, which you can review periodically.
Don’t bet each-way. The standard place terms offered by bookmakers are below the true mathematical odds, unless you bet in handicaps with 16 or more runners. Even then, the mathematical advantage that you hold is negated by large, competitive fields, the vagaries of the draw, luck in running, etc. Not only that, but betting each-way requires you to halve your stake or double your outlay and often leads to indecisive selection.
Don’t chase your losses. Losing runs are a fact of life, even for successful punters, so come to accept them as an occupational hazard. Taking a long-term view, in conjunction with an adequate betting bank, should help you to deal with any short-term reverses without becoming emotionally involved.
Don’t believe advertisers who promise you massive-looking profits for the price of a monthly subscription, unless they can produce independently proofed results for a period of at least three months. The results should demonstrate that the advertised profits can be achieved by placing a realistic number of bets, to realistic stakes, at prices that are generally available. It’s possible to generate huge profits, on paper, by placing hundreds of theoretical bets at hundreds or thousands of pounds per point but, in reality, such “systems” are just plain nonsense.
We hope you enjoyed ‘How to Bet on Horses: The Dos & Don’ts of Profitable Punting’ and we will be back soon with another advanced betting guide. In the meantime, we would love to hear your thoughts on ‘How to Bet on Horses: The Dos & Don’ts of Profitable Punting’ in the comments section below.


Sean Martin said...

Only invest on known and proven stats and info that is fairly recent, recent winning/close placings(4 out of previous 6 runs) and franked form,ideally recent as in the last 10 days for flat and last 2 to 4 weeks for jumps. Horses over 7yo for flat and 11yo for jumps should be avoided unless exceptional circumstances, correct draw for course and horse running style, generally front runners well drawn win tight races at value odds. Ensure advantageous going and distance for horse, smaller fields mean less horses to beat, only invest 1% of your bank and increase you stakes as a percentage of your bank when you have had two winners, no EW betting, no multiple accumulators, these are black holes to throw your money into. Never ask a horse to carry your money and expect it to do something it has not done previously, if not won previously to have at least run a speedtime or a rating that would leave it clear at its favourite time of the race, depending on run style.Last and most importantly make sure you know your strike rate and only take a value price ....if you can reduce a field down to 5 or 6 possible contenders then anything better than 9/2 on an achievable 25% strike rate is value ...don't worry about shortpriced faves up against your horse ...they get beat all the time ...anything under 4/1 is a waist of time over the longer term ...but if all the above conditions are met then in a small field then the ocassional shortish price is allowable ....sticking to the above rules is actually very easy, so is ignoring them ...but I know which set of rules makes money over the medium to long term....and the longer you go the faster the earnings'll be lucky to find one bet a day that fits into this mold...always remember if your opposition is classy then you have to be classier....if they are crap then you only have to be less only have to beat one horse out of the 5 or 6 you have identified as a possible ...and that's the second best horse in the field ...oh and leave forecasts to the dreamers, bookies love em

G said...

Some good betting insights there Sean. Many thanks for your input!

Post a Comment