2:10 Yarmouth (Wednesday 14th June)

Wait One Minute, Sovereign State Gets My Vote

An EBF Novice Stakes (Plus 10) over 5f 42y on good to firm going. Just five runners: two with race experience and a trio of debutantes. 

One Minute will be the answer to the question for many punters here. To be honest, you can't knock this strapping filly trained by William Haggas.  This bay is a daughter of Kodiac and a cracking 2yo purchase at the breeze-up sales for £52,000. She made her debut in May racing over the minimum trip. It looked a tall order taking on a field of mostly colts, especially To Wafij, trained by Roger Varian, who had won well over course and distance. He had to shoulder a winner's penalty but One Minute disposed of him like a black widow spider looking for a Big Mac before a date. 

This January foal ran out an easy win by more than three lengths. 

The form of that race has been franked on a number of occasions. It is probably the case that To Wafij and Demons Rock went a stride too fast that day, while Elysium Dream needed an extra furlong which proved the point when needing every yard to win her next start. One Minute has to carry a penalty, which is a fair test even for a talent. At odds of 4/9f she will most likely be a banker for most punters who like to dig deep. 

That's all good and well. However, even the best horses get beaten often when you least expect.

There may be a couple of outsiders worthy of respect. 

Philip McBride is a canny trainer. He is particularly good with his fillies and those running on their second start. Onefootinparadise is a bay daughter of Footstepsinthesand and a cheap purchase at just 2,000G. That price tag alone will put most punters off betting. There is no doubt she needs to improve on that debut. The form is no more than average but she suffered a terribly slow start and ran on with spirit. McBride gives the honours to an apprentice to take a valuable 5lb off her back. The betting is a key factor. We are looking at a big price chance but I wouldn't bet if this filly is priced over 20/1. However, if priced about 14/1 & less SP she could be worthy of a small each-way bet. 

Sovereign State is interesting. This bay colt needs to be primed to win on debut. However, I can be pretty confident this son of Compton Place has ability. Racing in the ownership of Qatar Racing Ltd, he looks a great breeze-up purchase at just £30,000. Readers may have noticed that Robert Cowell sent out an exciting filly to win the Hilary Needler Stakes at Beverley on debut. The Brian Yeardley Stakes for colts had a very interesting entry who didn't run. It was Sovereign State. That entry is a very good indicator that Cowell rates this colt and I suspect he will run a big race here. 

Viscount Loftus and May Girl are best watched.

Conclusion: One Minute looks a filly going places and if winning here you can bet connections will be viewing Royal Ascot with interest. True, she will take some beating but whether you want to jump in at 4/9f carrying a penalty is another matter. If this was a donkey derby I would be thinking she is half way to a certainty myself but I would be fearful of Sovereign State. He is likely to have ability and we know from Cowell's past exploits that he can train a talent to win on debut. I would be fearful of this colt. Onefootinparadise looks a poor relation to these with regard purchase price but McBride is no fool. The betting will tell the story and if a huge price I would say look to the two favourites. However, if she is 14/1 & less SP she may be a little tougher than you think. If you are convinced the fvourite will win with ease, I'd have a small cover bet on Sovereign State just to help you sleep at night!

Boris Johnson for Prime Minister?

Boris Johnson for Prime Minister? Personally, it's not a thought that fills me with boundless joy, but really I'm just bleary eyed, election watching, and casting my mind back to an outsider that one punter bet on late last month. A week or so back, people were laughing themselves silly at a £2000 bet one Labrokes punter made on Boris Johnson to be prime minister after the 2017 election (by July 1st). It led to much head scratching and the odd comment that this guy must be a nut!

As it turns out though, it seems like the punter was thinking along the right lines. At time of writing, the 2017 general election seat tally is Con: 303 Lab: 256 Lid Dem: 12 SNP: 34  Other 21 . This is a significant under performance for Theresa May and has the potential to create more problems than it solves. As such, itm ay well be that the party decides that she now has to go. With that in mind the former London mayor is currently rapidly shortening in price to be the next leader.

So I hear you ask, what were the betting odds for Boris becoming prime minister following the election, when this brave follow bet a cool two grand on it. Wait for it........... 100 - 1 . Possibly he'll now try to lay off some of the bet to make sure he gets a clunk of well deserve cash based on his foresight. It was a shrewd bet considering that a hung parliament wasn't 'entirely' out of the question, and the fact that Boris Johnson was widely expected to run for the Tory leadership last year following David Cameron stepping down. This political betting certainly lark seems to work out okay for some, and I'm glad someone is benefiting from our current crazy political lurches this was and that. Uncertain times ahead.

6:25 Windsor (22nd May)

British Stallions EBF FILLIES' Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race)

A Fillies' Novice Stakes over 6f 12y on good to soft ground. Decent price money on offer sees eight two-year-olds take part.

Charlie Appleby has been the king of debut winners this season such is the force of Godolphin. Dathanna is made favourite (15/8) in the tissue prices but it will be interesting to see if she is opposed to what could be a respectable form horse. 

Dathanna is a daughter of Dubawi is likely to have the ability but needs to bit ready against more experienced rivals. 

Cardaw Lily hails from Richard Hughes who I have been quite critical of as a trainer. He often fails miserably with fancied horses although this daughter of Lawman ran well on debut at Ascot a race that is likely to yield many winners. Certainly the first three look capable of a higher class.This £35,000 yearling purchase was sent off 33-1. She was slow away but ran on well in the closing stages without being hard pressed. With that experience under her belt, you have to feel a big race.

Angel Of The South was behind. Dean Ivory's daughter of Dark Angel was fancied to go well on debut at this course and finished second to Rock Of Estonia. Considering she cost £170,000 at the yearling sales it is fair to imagine connections expected a bold show at Ascot. She didn't run well at all. However, it was a competitive race so you have to be careful because it may have been her running. She led that day with Mrs Gallagher and thought she went a stride too fast for her ability. The betting kind of suggests the bookmakers think the same. It will be interesting to see how both Cardaw Law and Angel Of The South go over this extra furlong. I would prefer the former but it will be intriguing.

Richard Hannon's Elysium Dream is another filly who ran in a hot maiden on debut won impressively by One Minute. This daughter of Champs Elysees looked clueless that day when 20/1. The leaders set a frantic pace but even so she was toiling behind like she had no hope of even being competitive. However, she plugged on and was chasing down the second and third with some aggression in the closing furlong. There is little doubt the placed horses had run out of energy so you have to be slightly cautious and wonder if Elysium Dream was flattered. This extra yardage will help but she wouldn't want to be slow into stride on this dog leg. 

Andrew Balding does well at this course so Angel Islington may go ok. Priced at 11/1 currently, it's certainly worth a look.

Similarly, Clive Cox can go win with debutantes. Windsor used to be a significant course for this trainer in the good old days so it is interesting to see Little Miss Lilly (also 11/1). 

Conclusion: Dathanna will have her supporters. Debutantes for this stable have done nothing wrong this season so that is a positive and six furlongs is easier for making ground if a touch slow into stride. I would take a watching brief. Cardaw Lily should go well and appreciate this extra furlong. She will improve from a nice introduction at Ascot. On that form, she should beat Angel Of The South but it is a matter of debate whether she ran her race that day. It was a strange run and I wouldn't give up hope on Ivory's horse just yet. However, I would need a double-figure price to take an interest. Not sure what to think about Elysium Dream. She could be a class act but needs to be much livelier this time round. The extra furlong should be a huge positive and that experience could have blown the cobwebs away. Angel Islington and Little Miss Lilly have claims and would be my picks here!

 As seen on bettingTips4you.com . They have a good track record and offer great profit opportunities. They certainly do their homework and identify the value on outsider bets. This is true on multiple sports and especially horse racing

The Quest For a Big Win

A cousin of mine takes part in a monthly horse racing tips competition alongside a few others run by my brother. It's just a bit of fun, is free and has a small cash prize each month so keeps people interested. This Saturday he somehow managed to get a 40-1 shot up (Henllan Harri at Sandown in the 3:35 Gold Cup Handicap Chase), and that was just the odds with the bookies, so it was possibly 100-1 + with Betfair. It's not every day of the week you get a winner at those odds, and of course I'm sure he's kicking himself for not having a bet on it.

Even though I'm definitely one to look for a big priced outsider win (hadn't you guessed from the URL of the blog!), I do often find myself more likely to pick out a few selections at around the 20-1 mark or thereabouts because you do need at least the semi occasional win to keep the momentum going motivation wise. For either myself, or those who keep up to speed with my bets, if I was always fixating on the 'rare as hen's teeth' odds range, I'd likely have an awful lot of lean spells.

That said, sometimes there are horses that, huge priced as they are, you can't help but at least think they have half a hope (and of course taking 'price to chance' into account, that's all you need at crazy odds). Those are the wins you remember, the real stand outs over the span of your betting life.

Of course many big wins in racing, aren't single bet outsiders as such, but instead accumulator bets with huge combined odds with at best an outside chance of winning. Not to say that they don't happen though. Case in point on Friday afternoon (28th April) one lucky Coral punter received the biggest payout in their history with his five horse accumulator, placing a paltry £19 on five Punchestown, Ireland bets and walking away with a mind boggling £823,000 - a fact he didn't even recieve until checking his account on the early hours of Saturday after a night out. A night to remember! The Vegas slots 'casino level win' of bets, something to muse over while you're playing high RTP Slots.

One of his selections (Canardier) was an outsider in its own right at 33-1, so was a brave selection to even include in an accumulator to be honest. His other selections were 10/1 Das Mooser (3.40 Punchestown), 9/2 Woodland Opera (4.20 Punchestown), 7/1 Definite Ruby (4.55 Punchestown), 10/1 Bacardys (6.05 Punchestown) and the bet consisted of 5 £3 4 fourfold accumulators and one £4 fivefold.

What's the biggest priced horse that's romped home for you (or biggest combined odds of your biggest winning acca)?