Douvan Aims for Cheltenham Festival Redemption

 

Douvan will face off against the great Altior at Cheltenham Festival in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, desperate to banish memories of his failure last season. Willie Mullins’ charge entered the 2017 Festival on the back of 13 straight wins and was expected to make it 14 on the bounce in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. However, he put forward the worst outing of his career, finishing in seventh place, which Mullins later claimed was due to injury. The bay gelding has not competed since and faces a massive challenge to produce the upset against Altior.

The display of the French horse on the big occasion was staggering due to his past success at Cheltenham. Douvan had appeared to have been healthy for the meet, but in post-race fitness checks, it was discovered that the bay gelding had a small stress fracture of the pelvis that limited his performance during the meet. Mullins has been careful with his charge in his recovery and has resisted the opportunity to put him forward for races over the last year. As a result, he is considered an outsider behind Altior and Min in the betting odds provided by William Hill for the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

The seven-year-old does have proven pedigree at Cheltenham Festival, making a statement in his first appearance by winning the Supreme Novices' Hurdle by a comfortable margin. He defeated Shaneshill and Sizing John among others to take the crown, highlighting his quality. In 2016 he returned to the Festival to compete in the Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase. Mullins’ charge was considered the overwhelming favourite for the event against a talented field, with Sizing John once again in the picture. However, Douvan dominated the rest of the field and was able to win the event by seven lengths, despite making an error at the final fence.

He continued his dominant run into the 2016/17 season, adding victories to the Cashcard Chase and the Tied Cottage Chase to his collection. However, the injury loomed large at Cheltenham to break his run of success. As the French horse makes his return to the track, he could be without jockey Ruby Walsh, who may be tempted to ride with his stable-mate Min for the event. That’s without the challenge of ending Altior’s dominant streak, with Nicky Henderson’s charge reeling off 12 wins on the bounce.

 

Altior has a strong history at Cheltenham Festival, winning on both his visits to the event. He claimed victory at the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in 2016 before easing to a six-length triumph in the Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase last season. Henderson’s charge has only been in action once since last term, but put forward a composed performance to win a two-mile event at Newbury Racecourse.

Douvan will have to put forward a flawless performance to compete with the Irish horse, and even that might not be enough to secure the victory given the quality of Altior in the closing stages. Mullins has to hope that his charge will be on form from the off to put his rival under pressure to claim his chance at redemption.

Three 2018 Grand National Outsiders to Consider Backing

 

Aintree Racecourse" (CC BY-SA 2.0) by Mick Roche

Coming in to the 2018 renewal, five of the last six Grand National heroes had a starting price of 25/1 or bigger.

That stat is all the evidence needed to show that the world’s greatest steeplechase remains one of the most difficult races to pick the winner in.

This extended 4m 2f Aintree marathon may be a compressed handicap nowadays, but is still full of unpredictable elements.

What the above demonstrates is that punters should not be so quick to dismiss the chances of horses at larger prices.

If finding something to back for the Grand National is giving you a headache, then you can always pick from the tips at Timeform, but here we put three horses not currently prominent in the ante-post betting under the spotlight.

Ucello Conti

Owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede will be hoping it’s third time lucky at Aintree for Ucello Conti, who is their sole representative this year.

Connections have already taken Vyta Du Roc, Polidam and Bristol De Mai out of the Grand National, so appear happy to rely on the Gordon Elliott trained 10-year-old.

Sixth to fellow Irish raider Rule The World in this race two years ago, Ucello Conti was perhaps a little unlucky to unseat his rider when tackling Becher's Brook for the second time in last season’s renewal.

A seven-length second to Anibale Fly on reappearance in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival, he disappointed last time out when pulled up in the Thyestes at Gowran Park.

Depending on what other horses forfeit their Grand National entries (the week prior to the Cheltenham Festival, he is 41 on the list), Ucello Conti could get in to the race with the most favourable terms yet.

Seeyouatmidnight

One For Arthur was a rare Scottish trained winner of the Aintree showpiece last year for Lucinda Russell, but hopes for the tartan team this time fall on another Borders-based handler.

Sandy Thomson’s Seeyouatmidnight was third in the 2016 Scottish Grand National at Ayr, so there is no doubting his stamina.

The 10-year-old hasn’t been seen over fences since pulling up in Haydock’s Betfair Chase that same year. Prior to that, Seeyouatmidnight beat Bristol De Mai in a Listed intermediate contest over fences.

He was also second at local track Kelso in a staying handicap over hurdles last March and could make his return over fences in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. However he performs if he turns up there, Seeyouatmidnight will surely come on for the run.

Go Conquer

 

"Jonjo O’Neill & partner" (CC BY-SA 2.0) by Carine06

Like compatriot Elliott above, Jonjo O’Neill knows what it takes to train a Grand National winner after his success with Don’t Push It in 2010. In Go Conquer, he has a nine-year-old with some experience of those unique spruce covered Aintree fences.

He raced in last year’s Topham Chase over 2m 5f at the Grand National meeting, but never really recovered from getting badly hampered at the Canal Turn. Go Conquer completed under Aidan Coleman, so it was clear connections were keen to maximise the opportunity.

In winning his first two starts this season, including the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot, Go Conquer highlighted how he still had improvement in him.

That previous spin over the National fences hints that this is a target earmarked for him by owners Paul and Clare Rooney.

Horse Profile: Istabraq

Introduction

Having enjoyed an extensive and unique career, Istabraq is a horse with a hugely impressive history to look back on. A bay-coloured Gelding, Istabraq was brought up as part of the unique stable of the Shadwell Estate, and is owned by Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid al Maktoum and JP McManus.

Across a hurdling masterclass of a career, Istabraq picked up a barely believable three Champion Hurdle wins as well as various different Hurdles, from the Deloitte Novice in ’97 to the Aintree Hurdle in 1999. 

 

Career Summary

Across a unique and powerful career, the wonderful Irish thoroughbred continued an exceptional increase in popularity and performance. Although originally bred for flats, it was hurdling where Istabraq showed its finest form and, before long, it was being used in this kind of racing.

Sold to John Durkan, it was trained by Durkan before his untimely diagnosis of leukaemia. Instead, it was trained by Aidan O’Brien – sadly, Durkan died before it won the 1998 Irish Champion Hurdle. With its first win at the 1998 Champion Hurdle, it was proclaimed that the win – by Charlie Swan – was for Durkan.

From then on, though, Istabraq became one of the most consistent horses on the circuit. From 1997-2002, it was a dominant force on the circuit, with titles coming at the December Festival and the Irish Champion Hurdle in the new millennium. Sadly, it had to retire after pulling back muscles and never being able to return to previous levels.

Today, it lives at Martinstown with JP McManus, it’s long-time owner. 

 

Achievements & Highlights

Wins – Champion Hurdle (1998, 1999, 2000), Irish Champion Hurdle (1998, 1999, 2000, 2001), Aintree Hurdle (1999). 

 

Associations – JP McManus, John Durkan, Aidan O’Brien, Charlie Swan. 

 

Earnings – £1m+.

You're in Luck!

From a betting perspective, I'm sure many of us are guilty of often putting our big wins solely down to skill, and our losses down to being 'unlucky'. In some situations though such as big accumulator wins or other unlikely outcomes that seem to somehow effortlessly fall into place, we should concede that luck can indeed play a meaningful role from time to time. With this in mind then, let's embrace some of the outsider odds moments that clearly have a big dollop of luck involved and revel in the unfolding good fortune!

Surely one of the luckiest (or perhaps) craziest betting moves has to be the 'all or nothing' roulette bets that you sometimes see. You can of course participate yourself with a BitwinBitcoin bonus code , after all who doesn't like to try their luck with a spin of the wheel from time to time. One noteworthy big win of recent years was a stunt a few years ago where one man, Ashley Revell, bet the proceeds of all of his worldly goods ($136,000) on a single spin of a roulette wheel. He opted for red. The idea came as result of a drunken conversatio with friends, and the Brit couldn't let the idea drop. Thankfully for him he won, but imagine how utterly gutting it would've been if he's lost everything.

"That spin was the most amazing moment of my life. It is a cliché but time did stand still. It was just complete calm" said Revell of his win.

A not quite such extreme bet, though more unlikely in terms of probability, is the good fortune of brazilian businessman Pedro Grendene Bartelle, who placed $35,000 on a single roulette spin (number 32) in 2017 at Hotel Conrad in Punta del Este, on the Uruguay coast . Lady luck was more than on his side, as his number came up, winning him a staggering $1.2million. Not bad for a few seconds work! Of course it's impossible to know how often he's 'gone big' on a single number, since he was already a mult imillionaire, but it's still a great moment to be captured on film.

Moving onto the territory of sports betting, one multiple / accumulator bet in recent times that sent my head spinning was a crazy 17-fold football accumulator by an online punter. The 50p 'match result' and 'both teams' to score bet, saw the lucky individual win a healthy £61,000. As you'd expect not all of the results were a formality, but by the end of each match the stars had aligned and ultimately a win's a win! A representative for the losing bookmaker predicted that this would be hard to top in 2018 in terms of how outlandishly difficult the accumulator was to land. What's your unlikely bet that came good?