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Friday 29 May 2015

2.55 York, 30th May

The Spring Sprint, run over 5 furlongs at 2:55 30 May in York, has thrown up seven winners at double-figure prices in the last ten years, so it’s the perfect race for us to get our teeth into.

Low drawn horses tend to have an advantage in large fields on the straight course when the going is good, or faster, while the opposite is true when the going is on the soft side. The going on the Knavesmire is currently good but, with showers forecast for Friday and overnight, it’s hard to predict what the prevailing underfoot conditions will be by mid-afternoon on Saturday.

Willbeme (16/1), drawn 13, remains weighted to her very best after two highly creditable efforts in defeat in Pattern and Group company towards the end of last season. Neville Bycroft’s 7-year-old mare could only finish fifth of fifteen, beaten 3 lengths, behind Out Do over course and distance on her reappearance earlier this month, but is entitled to improve for that run, her first since August. She’s also 5lb better off for 2¾ lengths with the runner-up Red Baron, so appears to have every chance of reversing the form. She’s won on good to firm, good and good to soft going and her prominent racing style should be an asset on the Knavesmire.

Astrophysics (16/1), drawn 14, nearly caused a shock when only beaten a head, at 50/1, by Beacon in the Polypipe Flying Childers Stakes at Doncaster last September, only to be turned over, at 1/2, in a match at Salisbury on his only subsequent start. The son of Paco Boy, who’s made a good start with his progeny, is effective on good to firm and good going, but is untried on softer. He’s yet to actually win over 5 furlongs and has an absence of 241 days to overcome, but remains a sprinter of no little potential after just five starts and looks reasonably treated on his handicap debut.

Kingsgate Choice (20/1), drawn 4, looks extraordinary value for a horse that ran in the Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp in 2013. Ed de Giles 8-year-old raced just three times, without success, last season, but is consequently 1lb lower in the weights than when winning the William Hill Scottish Sprint at Musselburgh. Just about all ground comes the same to him, too, and he has the ability to run well at a huge price.

Our three against the field, this week, are Willbeme (16/1), Astrophysics (16/1) and Kingsgate Choice (20/1). All prices are will the sponsors, Titan Bet. Good luck!